(Tiper Stock Exchange) – Inflation slows down the run in May. According to preliminary estimates by Istat, the national consumer price index for the entire community, gross of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis and 7.6% on an annual basis, from +8, 2% in April.
The deceleration – which brings the rate back to March levels – it is primarily due to the slowdown on a trend basis in the prices of unregulated energy goods (from +26.6% to +20.5%) and, to a lesser extent, of processed food (from +14.0% to +13.4%).
As always, here comes the comments from the associations that signal that the picture is still full of uncertainties “Even if the data show a slowdown in the inflationary drive, Istat detects a deterioration in consumer confidence in May. A signal that illustrates how families are still in difficulty from an economic point of view due to the price increases of recent months , despite the fact that modern distribution companies have made a major economic effort in the last year to support the purchasing power of Italians, sacrificing part of their margins to gradually transfer the cost increase due to the increase in raw materials to consumption and energy goods”. As Carlo Alberto Buttarelli, President of Federdistribuzione on consumer prices for the month of May released by Istat. “We are worried – he added – due to the stability of consumption in the coming months, which are already in negative territory as regards sales volumes, especially in the food sector where we record a figure of around -4% on an annual basis. In some non-food sectors there is a slowdown in consumption, also due to the weather which, in recent weeks, has negatively influenced sales in the clothing sector in particular. In a scenario where prices will remain high, Modern Distribution companies will continue to meet the needs of families, guaranteeing an offer based on quality and convenience. However, it remains essential to direct all possible resources to encourage the recovery of internal demand in the coming months, thus guaranteeing stability both for companies and for the Made in Italy excellence supply chains”
“In May, Italian inflation slowed down again, settling at 7.6% on an annual basis. Apart from the positive signals coming from the less dynamic underlying inflation, confirming how the tensions accumulated within the system are slowly easing, dangerous uncertainties remain regarding the time horizon within which the change in consumer prices will be consistent with the objectives of the monetary policy authorities. At present, this result should not be achieved before next autumn”. This is the comment of the Research Department of Confcommercio athe data released by Istat. As for the data on GDP for the first quarter, the upward revision “in addition to consolidating the expectations of growth for 2023 above 1%, and perhaps close to a point and a half, continues to place our country among the most dynamic economies of the post-pandemic phase. The moderate recovery in household consumption, linked in part to the recovery in the demand for motor vehicles, and the persistence of investments in positive territory, support the recovery of our economy which, beyond the small setback in final months of last year, continues from the beginning of 2021. The possibilities of keeping a pprofile of lively growth also in the coming months will be determined by inflationary dynamics, the impact of interest rates and the tenor of world trade”.
“The Istat estimates on inflation in May, which has returned to the levels of March after the increase in April, do not yet provide certainties. In fact, a decisive reduction path is not outlined, even if the inflation acquired for now is around 3 points below the record level of 2022. Our forecasts, however, place it at 5.7% and the guard level of 2% will not be touched until 2026”. This is the comment of the Economic Office Confesercenti to Istat data. The monetary policies of the ECB to regulate inflation and the increase in interest rates, which have had strong repercussions on Italian companies, also weigh on this. We make our own the warning of the Governor of Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco who specified in his annual report that ‘care must be taken that the intensity of its transmission does not give rise to an excessive slowdown in consumption and investment’. The Governor “presented a vision of the current Italian socio-economic condition to be shared: from the complexity of the tax system with the need for simplifications to the commitment to tax evasion to bring out the undeclared. Our proposal on the minimum wage is to work on respecting and applying national contracts and favoring the reduction of tax on contract renewals”.
Inflation falls only thanks to the slowdown in energy goods, with unregulated goods slowing down from +26.6% to +20.5% in May – explains the President of Codacons Carlo Rienzi? An optical effect, therefore, which alters the inflation figure, demonstrated by the performance of the other sectors: food prices remain at sustained levels (+11.9%), as do the shopping carts (+11.3%), impacting on the pockets of families?.
Based on Codacons calculations, in fact, inflation at 7.6% translates into higher spending on an annual basis equal to +2,879 for a household with two children, +2.223 the ?typical? family. Just to eat, a nucleus spends an average of 915 euros more, for the same consumption.
The inflation data for May “demonstrate how the price emergency is far from resolved in Italy, with retail price lists which for some sectors, such as food and shopping trolleys, remain at high levels”. He claims it Assoutenti, commenting on the numbers released today by Istat.
“Despite the slowdown in inflation, just for the purchase of food and drinks a family with two children today finds itself spending 915 euros more on an annual basis, due to the heavy price increases that have hit the food sector – explains the president Of Absoutenti, Furio Truzzi – Consumers are reacting by cutting food spending and giving up more and more on quality, in order to make ends meet at the end of the month. For this we believe it is essential to create, in collaboration with the large-scale distribution, producers and local authorities, a basket of goods at controlled prices, to be identified month by month according to the trend in retail price lists, to allow all families to put food on the table without suffering bloodletting, thus protecting incomes and purchasing power” – concludes Truzzi.
“Excellent news. Inflation is slowing down. It is positive that after the rise in April, due to the restoration of system charges on electricity and most of those on gas, which had caused energy prices to skyrocket, now, thanks with the collapse in the gas price that occurred this month on the Amsterdam market, inflation resumed its virtuous path, going down again.It is no coincidence that it was above all unregulated energy goods that decelerated, given that the The price update of the protected market hasn’t started yet” he says Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumer Union.
“Naturally, the problems of families are far from being solved. In fact, prices continue to rise in May too: +0.3% on April 2023. For a couple with two children, inflation is +7.6 % means a sting equal to 2257 euros on an annual basis, of which 915 are used only to cope with the price increases of the11.9% food and drink. For a couple with 1 child, the additional expense is equal to 2069 euros, 826 for food and drink. On average for a family the blow is 1727 euros, 671 for food and non-alcoholic beverages. The record goes to large families with more than 3 children with a beating of 2540 euros, 1093 just to feed and quench their thirstDona concludes.