(Finance) – “Who sought signs of a potential recovery or at least one stability of Italian industrial production by the end of 2024 will remain disappointed by the December data “. So Paolo LaceSenior Economist of Ing, commented on the data published this morning by Istat.
“The production had remained almost stable since July 2024, but December marked a discount turn – underlined the economist -. The contraction Monthly of 3.1% in decreased terms (against +0.3% of November) was clearly worse than expectations. On an annual basis, industrial production adjusted for working days decreased by 7.1%, the strongest contraction from the Covid-19 period. Production has taken itself on basis quarterly in each quarter of 2024 and the contraction average annual For 2024 it was a heavy 3.5%. This marks the second consecutive year of profound industrial recession “.
“A quick look at the distribution sectoral It shows that December involved a large deterioration of annual performances: the means of transport, the textile and metal products were those with more marked contractions, while the energy and extraction of minerals were the only large sectors to record one Positive annual growth, “said Pizzoli.
“In perspective, the context macro It is not in favor of an imminent recovery of industrial activity – he pointed out -. Data on orders Reported by the economic investigations on companies have been modest in recent months and that of January has only recorded a slight increase in a reduced trend. This seems consistent with a level of stocks of finished products that has not decreased enough to stimulate a cycle of reconstitution of stocks. If to this are added the growing concerns for a possible new cycle of US duties on EU exports, the perfect mix is obtained for a continuation of the difficulties in the manufacturing sector in the coming months. Also the recent acceleration of Gas prices it does not help; If protracted over time, it could mitigate the timid pushing impulses from the offer side that we had noticed in some sectors with high energy intensity in the second half of 2024 “.
“If today’s data partially reflect the decision of the companies to start the Christmas holidays in advance due to the weakness of the application, a technical rebound cannot be excluded in January. This would not change the Square generalwhich remains dark in the short term. For the moment, the industry does not seem destined to become an engine of growth and the burden of growth will probably fall on the services and part of the construction sector. We currently foresee one growth average of GDP 0.7% in 2025; Today adds downward risks, “concluded the economist of Eng.