A Ukrainian counter-offensive must have begun with full force, four Ukrainian military sources told The Washington Post newspaper today. At the same time, several Russian military bloggers testify about heavy Ukrainian artillery shelling.
– All this indicates that Ukraine has launched an offensive, says Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
Ukrainian military sources, who wish to remain anonymous, tell the newspaper that there were offensive maneuvers at the front in the southeast during the night. Among the Ukrainian forces are specially trained assault units armed with Western weapons and trained in NATO tactics.
– On Russian social media there is a lot of talk about strong Ukrainian artillery fire. It is likely that they managed to knock out at least one Ukrainian Leopard tank. It is not very remarkable but there are several things that indicate that the offensive has begun.
Trying out
If Ukraine succeeds in finding weak points in the Russian defense, the counteroffensive can go relatively quickly, Paasikivi believes.
– There is great depth in the Russian defensive positions and if you manage to get through, it can go quickly. But before you have worked your way through it, it is difficult to say how it will go, he says and continues:
– You press on different points and where it is weak you fill up. At the same time as trying to prevent the Russians from moving inside the area.
Then Russia will have problems
One possible target is the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol. If the Ukrainian forces manage to get there, they can cut the Russian lines of communication that go to Crimea.
– Then Russia will have big problems with its plan. It is Russia, they say themselves. It is illegally occupied since 2014, it would be a heavy blow if the Ukrainians succeed.
At the same time, the rescue work continues after the dam collapse and earlier today Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi visited the disaster-stricken area in Kherson. According to Paasikivi, the Russians likely blew up the dam to stop a Ukrainian crossing on the Dnieper River.
– It will not be what the Russians were afraid of – a crossing over the river and an offensive against Crimea. At least not for several weeks.