The new Prime Minister should support some tax increases for 2025. Here are the ones he could retain.
This seems inevitable. If they do not come into force on 1er January due to censorship, the idea of tax increases did not start with Michel Barnier. The new Prime Minister, François Bayrou, should also direct future debates towards an increase in taxation. Not on all points, but the tenant of Matignon already seems to have a few devices and several taxes in his sights.
Officially, François Bayrou has not yet made a statement on his tax intentions. But in the 42 years he has been in politics (!), the septuagenarian has formulated a certain number of proposals, just like his close entourage elected to the National Assembly, to increase taxes. Certain ideas had also passed a first stage during recent parliamentary discussions. They could therefore return to the forefront.
A dozen taxes in the viewfinder?
If the main question of the French is whether income tax will increase in 2025, the answer has not been definitively established. However, this should not be the case. A mechanism should be implemented so that households do not pay more, with equal income, compared to their last declaration.
On the other hand, among the avenues for additional revenue, François Bayrou could take up provisions proposed – among others – by elected officials from MoDem (his party) and adopted by deputies, before everything is abandoned by censorship. Among them:
- Increase in tax on sodas and processed sugary products
- Larger increase in housing tax on second homes
- Increase in the rate of the single flat-rate levy (PFU) from 30 to 33%
- Increase in taxation on “superdividends”
- Implementation of a minimum tax of 20% on income, applied until 2026 income
- Increase in taxation on business transfers (Dutreil pact)
- Subject the transformation of offices into housing to the development tax
But that’s not all. Other avenues for increasing state revenue are also being considered by the MoDem and have already been the subject of parliamentary debates. Will François Bayrou take up some of them? We include in particular:
- The increase in inheritance tax on life insurance
- The increase in the taxation of capital gains from intra-group transfers
- The integration of more elements in the calculation of the real estate wealth tax
Furthermore, the creation of a “green ISF” could be an additional avenue, even if its implementation seems delicate with regard to the political forces. Finally, while there was talk of increasing employer contributions on low wages, François Bayrou was in favor of it, with the desire to review the system in its entirety.
No debates before mid-January
In March, on RTLthe Prime Minister had already outlined the contours of his guideline: “If there are rebalancing measures, they must go towards those who have the most means, including the most means depending on the crisis, without damaging the image of France which helps attract investors.”
For now, Michel Barnier’s successor must form a government. The preparation of the budget will only come later and will not be able to reach the National Assembly, at the earliest, until January 13, the date of the end of the parliamentary recess.