Military science docent Ilmari Käihkö considers Donbas to be Russia’s likely minimum goal in the war.
10.1. 17:42•Updated 10.1. 17:44
British intelligence reports that Russian forces have advanced in Donbas and most of the town of Soledar would now be under Russian control.
If the British intelligence information is correct, what significance would this have for the war?
– Russia wants to block Bahmut. A city in the north would make this easier, and Ukraine’s service connections would be jeopardized, says Visiting Researcher of the Alexander Institute of the University of Helsinki, Docent of Military Science Ilmari Käihkö.
He considers Donbas to be Russia’s likely minimum goal in the war.
How big of a turn would this be?
– Russia will certainly make a big deal out of this. Both need wins. However, Russia is not winning the war.
A more slowly progressing war of consumption can be expected. Ukraine is being slowed down by the huge additional forces that Russia has brought to its soil. And they are entrenched in defensive positions.
Tanks are being sent
What about the West’s latest weapon aid, can tanks bring a new twist to the course of war? In Käihkö’s opinion, they have more political than military significance. Käihkö considers the discussion problematic both in Finland and elsewhere.
– The new defense minister said that it is important to support Ukraine, but Finland’s defense capability must not suffer.
For example, how many Leopards could Finland send? If the defense forces were asked if they could afford to give up even one. On the other hand, if it’s about the future of Europe as a whole, shouldn’t all possible aid be sent to Ukraine now, Käihkö is wary of politicking.
So why not send?
– There is a risk that the war will expand.
In addition, each country’s own need for defense has its own question.
– It is not believed that we will be able to beat Russia, says Käihkö.
The two political choices are therefore at war with each other. This is especially frustrating in the United States, which has helped Ukraine more than Europe itself.
However, the issue of arms assistance is one of the most central.
Ammo wears out, guns wear out. Already in the spring, the Ukrainian troops had to rely on Western artillery, because the ammunition of the Soviet-era equipment was used up.
– If the war drags on, later you can legitimately ask why certain decisions weren’t made earlier. The material is of great importance. Russia has invested in its own production, Europe has not.
Russia is bigger than the warring parties: that is, if Ukraine runs out of ammunition, the front lines will freeze. When the war does not progress, the country has to make concessions.
At least Russia is in no hurry to end the war.
Read also:
The latest information on the Russian invasion of Ukraine here.