ISTANBUL A single parent living in the Okmeydan working-class district in Istanbul Lale Çayır says that he lived quite a good life a few years ago, although he didn’t realize it at the time.
Now the inflation, which is progressing at a furious pace, has broken his economy and that of many others in Turkey.
The 55-year-old Çayır, who sent his two daughters to university, is currently unemployed and lives on a widow’s pension of more than 200 euros. Half of that goes to the rent of a modest apartment, which is affordable because Çayır cleans the stairs of the apartment building and gets a discount on his rent.
His income currently falls below Turkey’s official minimum wage. It is 5,500 lira, i.e. more than 300 euros.
The rise in rent and food prices has hit low-income families particularly hard.
Lale Çayır says at home that, for example, the price per kilo of tomatoes has quadrupled since last year.
Vegetables rejected by supermarkets are fine
Compared to the Finnish price level, the current euro price per kilo of tomatoes doesn’t sound bad, but now many are looking for something cheaper.
– We buy our vegetables when the market is closing. The money is enough for products that have become old or fallen off the counters, says Çayır.
In Turkey, the prices of vegetables and fruits usually fall with the harvest season. This year it didn’t happen like that, Lale Çayır says on the way to the nearby market.
– We have been told that the increase in fuel costs will increase prices, even though it is the harvest season.
In Okmeydanı, you can see that people are tight. People gather on the street corner to buy vegetables and fruits cleaned from the supermarket shelves.
In the bread line, the state is blamed
In the nearby bread line, people are queuing for cheap bread. A generous two hundred gram piece of bread costs five Turkish liras. According to the current exchange rate, it is just under 30 euro cents.
You can find bread at the municipal bakery for even cheaper, less than 20 cents.
– The prices are cheap, but soon they will rise, says the woman waiting for the bread.
The man standing next to him says that Turkey’s current leaders are to blame for a situation where prices just keep going up and up.
– The poor only get poorer and the rich get richer, the future worries me, the man says.
Inflation is 83 percent – or more than 180 percent
The official inflation figure for September was more than 83 percent. But the Turkish Statistical Institute’s figures have been suspected of being too low.
A group of economists has founded of the group (you switch to another service)which tracks inflation with automated data collection of prices from the web.
– Our inflation rate is over 180 percent. Our data collection differs from the methods of the Turkish Statistical Institute in that we monitor daily price changes and collect more information, says the professor Veysel Ulusoy from the ENA group investigating the progress of inflation.
Turkey’s inflation is especially accelerated by the president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a strong belief that inflation should be fought by lowering interest rates. This has also caused the value of the Turkish currency, the lira, to collapse.
– The government’s line is absurd in light of economic theories, it leads to a dead end, says Professor Ulusoy.
The method used by a group of researchers independent of the government to track inflation is borrowed from Harvard University (you go to another service).
According to Professor Ulusoy, economists in the United States are having discussions with the local Statistics Finland about measuring inflation. In Turkey, the authorities have chosen another path.
Instead of discussions, a lawsuit
The authorities have tried to prevent the publications of the ENA group. In addition to that, Veysel Ulusoy is going to trial at the beginning of November accused of defaming the Turkish Statistical Institute.
Ulusoy says that he would have many questions for the Turkish Statistical Institute.
– We would have liked to talk to Statistics Finland about measuring inflation, but they didn’t want it. We are not considered an opposition force. Our group is independent, also from universities, says Professor Ulusoy.
Questioning official economic figures may be a crime in the future.
In mid-October, the Turkish parliament passed a law banning the spread of fake news, with the votes of Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party and its allies. In the parliamentary debate, the opposition suspected that economists who question the official figures are now at risk of prosecution.
The problem is that Turkish courts are, among other things Council of Europe (you will switch to another service)estimated to have lost their independence. The definition of fake news may be followed the board’s wishes (you are moving to another service) of silencing critics.
Critics of the government believe that President Erdoğan and the ruling Justice and Development Party want to take even tighter control of the public debate before next year’s elections. Then both the president and the parliament, which has turned into a rubber stamp, will be elected.
Erdoğan, who has been president since 2014, is aiming for another term.
Putin and Erdoğan developed cooperation
President of Russia Vladimir Putin is apparently trying to boost the Turkish economy to support Erdoğan’s re-election. Erdoğan and Putin have developed Turkish-Russian economic relations, which are important for Russia under sanctions.
The Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom is currently building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. Several billion dollars have been transferred from Russia to Turkey by Rosatom to the Turkish subsidiary (you switch to another service)formally to finance construction works.
The completed power plant is likely to remain in Russian ownership.
President Putin has also proposed that Turkey be made a major center for Russian gas exports.
The Turkish government is trying to survive the elections
The Turkish government has also tried to get money from the Gulf Arab states.
Countries can help by transferring money to companies operating in Turkey or by buying Turkish bonds.
Foreign currency has been flowing into Turkey recently, and the share of money flows from unknown sources in the statistics is increasing. If foreign currency is brought to Turkey, the government can stabilize the country’s economy temporarily – possibly beyond the elections.
– Turkey does not have an economic policy at the moment. Now money is printed, which is distributed on favorable terms. The wealthy and the banks get richer. Even the poor are given something until the elections, but hyperinflation looms at the end of the chosen road, says Professor Veysel Ulsoy.
He predicts a new crisis and dark times for Turkey when the problems come crashing down after next summer’s elections.
You can discuss the topic on 27.10. until 11 p.m.
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