A foreign and security policy expert does not believe that the Easter information leak will affect arms aid to Ukraine. The leak revealed that the United States doubts Ukraine’s ability to counterattack.
Deputy director of the Estonian Center for International Defense Research Kristi Raikin According to Based on the information leak, the United States doubts Ukraine’s ability to counterattack.
– The danger is that the leaks increase uncertainty about Ukraine’s ability to achieve its goals with a counterattack. This is the most important thing for Ukraine.
Raik states that the information revealed in the leak is not necessarily up-to-date.
– I have to remember that the information is already a bit out of date. There is also no complete certainty as to what is correct information and what is distorted.
Ukraine has long said it suffers from a shortage of ammunition and has demanded more powerful weapons from the West against Russian aggression. The United States and other Western countries have increased their arms aid in recent weeks.
Raik does not believe that the information leak will affect Ukraine’s plans for a counterattack in any significant way.
– It is still certain that a counterattack will come. The details of the counterattack are not known, as Ukraine tries to keep the information strictly secret until the very end.
– Ukraine’s goal of liberating some occupied territories in the coming months remains and it still has the support of Western countries, he continues.
“There is fear in the West of the possible recapture of Crimea”
Raik does not believe that the information leak will affect the arms aid given to Ukraine by Western countries either. He estimates that the information leak can also have the opposite effect.
– It can be seen in such a way that Ukraine quickly needs more ammunition and the strength of air defense must be increased quickly. Perhaps this can also work in such a way that it puts momentum into the actions of Western countries.
Raik points out that there are also fears of a counterattack in the West.
– Ukraine is supported in the West, but there is also a little fear of Ukraine’s victories. There are fears in the West, especially regarding the possible recapture of Crimea. There is a lot of concern about what kind of backlash it could cause from the Russian side.
– Talks about Ukraine’s inability to counterattack can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The blocks have been visible even before the leaks.
“Russia’s nuclear deterrence has weakened”
The United States has warned Ukraine not to try to retake Crimea. Many researchers have also considered taking back Crimea risky.
– I myself do not share this view. It is important that Ukraine frees all occupied territories, says Raik.
Raik estimates that Russia’s nuclear deterrence has weakened.
– In my opinion, the effect of the threat of using a nuclear weapon has weakened. A widely shared assessment is that Russia will not use nuclear weapons, because the Western backlash would be so strong that Russia would not be able to achieve its goals.
– It’s hard to say what information leaks will change in the current situation. Not necessarily much, Kristi Raik sums up.
In this article you can read the latest news about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
You can discuss the topic until Friday at 23:00.