From the road which goes straight into the desert, we can see a black line thickening on the horizon. In the middle of a yellow and dusty immensity, a dark expanse like a sea undulates with the movements of the land. About thirty kilometers from Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), 4 million photovoltaic panels have eaten away at a piece of the desert. 20 square kilometers – a quarter of the surface area of Paris – intended to produce more than two gigawatts of green electricity and power nearly 200,000 homes.
The project of the emirate’s renewable energy company, Masdar, carried out in partnership with EDF Renewables and China’s Jinko Power, is now the largest in the world. A few weeks ago, the number 2 of the emirate of Abu Dhabi, Hazza bin Zayed al-Nahyan, came to inaugurate this installation. It also sent a clear message: the Emirates are committed to the ecological transition, and they see things big.
With its forests of skyscrapers erected on artificial islands reclaimed from the sea, its urban highways as vast as they are oversized and its economy built on fossil fuels, the choice of Dubai to host the 28th UN climate conference ( COP28) was not the most obvious. Because for a long time the Emirates lived on subsidies from hydrocarbons. From the discovery of the first deposits in the waters of the Gulf in the 1950s to the creation of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) in 1971, their rise in economic and diplomatic power was accompanied by a continuous growth of production of black gold. And as the world climate summit opens this week, its organizers assure us: the future of renewable energies is also at stake at home.
Sultan al-Jaber, between two worlds
In a small living room of her ministry, Mariam Almheiri, the Minister of Climate Change and the Environment, tells the story of this transformation: “We created Masdar in 2006 to be the catalyst for the United Arab Emirates. The goal was not only to strengthen our capabilities in renewables, but also to develop our own know-how.” Having become a juggernaut in the sector, Masdar is now present in around forty countries. Its investments in solar and wind represent around $30 billion, and its portfolio of projects is expected to ultimately produce 20 gigawatts of renewable energy. Locally, the company must also serve as a tool to achieve the objective of net zero emissions by 2050. So, to decarbonize electricity production still composed of 80% gas, the Emirates intend to triple their capacity in renewable energies , are joining forces with South Korea to build new nuclear reactors, and are going all-in on hydrogen. “The United Arab Emirates aims to capture 25% of the entire low-carbon hydrogen market by 2030,” says Mohammad el-Ramahi, head of Masdar’s hydrogen branch.
The investments are there, and the diversification of energy sources is underway. But the billions are not only raining down on photovoltaic panels and wind turbines. Alongside this diversification, oil remains in control. “Their strategy is moving forward on two legs, a more diversified economy than what we see in the region, but without abandoning hydrocarbons, since demand continues to grow and they believe they have the best production costs,” underlines Marc -Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, director of the Energy and Climate Center at the French Institute of International Relations.
This mix of genres between decarbonization and oil windfall is embodied in the person of Sultan al-Jaber. The businessman, who chairs this high-risk COP this year, belongs to both worlds. Both managing director of Adnoc and founder of Masdar, he defends a pragmatic vision of the future where the Emirates would continue to supply the demand of emerging countries with cheap oil. Even if it means that his country’s flagship industry is the last one standing.
Impossible carbon neutrality
Sitting on almost 7% of the world’s oil reserves, the Emirates benefit from a double advantage: easily accessible resources and a barrel price that has been rising for years. Deriving 55% of their income from this fossil-based windfall, the region’s governments are doing everything to ensure its economic future. In fact, state production is expected to increase further in the years to come. In 2022, the Emirates’ capacities were around 4 million barrels per day. They could be increased to 5 million by 2027. For this, the Abu Dhabi oil company plans massive investments: 150 billion dollars between 2023 and 2027. At the same time, the company plans to devote only 15 billion dollars for green energy. It is therefore impossible to maintain a trajectory compatible with carbon neutrality by 2050, observe the specialized NGOs.
In the heart of Abu Dhabi’s business district, the abandonment of oil seems like a distant mirage. A stone’s throw from the emir’s palace, an immense rectangle of glass rises very high towards the sky. It is the tallest building in the Emirate, and the headquarters of Adnoc. On the 37th floor of this building which has more than 70 floors, Musabbeh al-Kaabi receives us dressed in an immaculate kandoura. Asked whether he can imagine a world without oil, the group’s executive director, in charge of the low-carbon solutions branch, evades. “Look around you, many elements of our daily life or from the industrial revolution come from fossil sources,” he argues. With serenity, he reveals all the nuances of the UAE strategy: “I believe in a world where fossil fuels can play a big role, but with minimal or no emissions.”
Risk of silting
This is the downside of this false transition defended by the Emirates. Throughout the interviews, ministers and leading figures from the oil and energy world speak not of the end of fossil fuels, but of the reduction of their greenhouse gas emissions, with great investment in energy solutions. CO2 capture and storage. “We have entered a new era, centered on the sale of magical technological solutions, which constitutes an even higher level of deception, denial, and delay in relation to climate change,” asserts Lili Fuhr, of the Center for International Environmental Law (Ciel), an American NGO which has taken an interest in UAE investments in this area.
In recent years, Adnoc’s commitments to these solutions, which aim to capture CO2 at the outlet of factory chimneys or directly into the atmosphere, have increased. Last August, the company entered into a partnership with the American company Oxy, a specialist in direct capture mega-plants. “By 2030, we have set ourselves a target of 10 million tonnes of CO2 captured each year,” Musabbeh al-Kaabi proudly announces. But there is nothing to prove that the results will live up to expectations. “For the fifty years that they have existed, these technologies have been marked by excessive promises and insufficient results,” moderates Lili Fuhr.
On the occasion of COP28, the Emirates will defend their vision of the future to the rest of the world. Discussions on the future of oil are expected to be heated, and many countries consider it unacceptable to advocate an exit from emissions instead of an abandonment of fossil fuels. The success of this summit, which many announce as disappointing, will depend on the ability of the Emirates to demonstrate their commitment to respecting the Paris agreement. But given the numerous fractures between the different nations, the risk of negotiations becoming bogged down has never been higher.
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