Thai politics comes to mind for many with military coups and the colorful demonstrations of red and yellow shirts, which occasionally turned violent.
In the elections on Sunday, the old power-hungry will be opposed by the new forces. According to the expert, the elections are therefore very significant.
– Now the political tug-of-war that has been going on for two decades is culminating, says the professor of international relations Pongsudhirak of Thitina From Chulalongkorn University in ‘s email interview.
With the ruling prime minister, a former army chief Prayut Chan-Ocha there are several contenders in the election.
A big election victory is predicted for the opposition “red shirts” Pheu Thai party and the progressive Move Forward party. The parties are estimated to get more than half of the seats in the lower house of the parliament.
According to recent measurement (you switch to another service)Pheu Thai would get more than 38 percent and Move Forward 28 percent of the votes. The current main government parties would get about 20 percent.
According to Professor Thitinan, it is especially significant that the new Move Forward party has gained so much popularity.
The party of young people against the elite
Move Forward is the heir to the Future Forward party, which came third in the 2019 elections.
Future Forward was disbanded after being accused of violating election laws. Many saw the decision as political.
Already four years ago, the party especially inspired the anti-elite youth.
– The party takes Thai politics to a new level because it demands reforms to key power structures, especially the army and the royal house, says Thitinan.
For example, the party wants to change the majesty crime law, which is one of the harshest in the world.
The law protects the king and his entourage. Insulting the monarchs can result in 3 to 15 years in prison. A charge often leads to a conviction. Judgments have been received, among other things, from social media posts.
The party also demands changes to Thailand’s conscription. Military service lasts two years.
Activists aspire to parliament
Among the candidates of the new party is a 28-year-old human rights activist Chonthicha Jangrew. Over the years, he has participated in several demonstrations demanding the resignation of the government and system reforms.
The activist has also received several charges, including crimes against his majesty.
– I believe that if this country is to be changed and true democracy is to be achieved, street protesters and legislators must cooperate, Chonthicha explained to the Reuters news agency his decision to run for parliament.
Other people who have actively participated in the demonstrations are also running.
The Move Forward party is led by a 42-year-old who studied in the United States Pita Limjaroenratwho has worked, among other things, as the director of Grab, a technology company that developed a food delivery application.
The red shirt movement is a favorite again
Thai politics has been a battle for decades, where on one side are the so-called red shirts and on the other side are the elite who support the army and the royal house, the so-called yellow shirts.
The red shirts are a millionaire Thaksin Shinawatra A movement founded in the 1990s that gains support especially in rural areas. “Thaksin’s party” has been successful in no less than five elections since 2001, the last time under the name Pheu Thai in 2019.
However, the party has been dissolved several times. Thaksin himself has lived mostly abroad since he was ousted in a military coup in 2006.
Pheu Thai’s candidates in Sunday’s election include Thaksin’s daughter, 36 years old Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Also Paetongtarn’s aunt, Thaksin’s sister Yingluck has been prime minister. He was ousted in 2014.
During the election, Thailand has been shaken by the fact that Thaksin has hinted that he intends to return from exile. He announced on Twitter that he wanted to come take care of his grandchildren.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra gave birth to her third child just two weeks before the election.
Professor Thitinan reminds us that although Pheu Thai and Future Forward both offer an alternative to the current administration, the parties also have differences in their approach to the monarchy, for example.
– Pheu Thai wants to agree on matters concerning the royal house in the new constitution without preconditions. Move Forward, on the other hand, wants changes related to the monarchy quickly, he says.
Both parties want to reform the constitution.
The representatives of the military power do not give up power on their own
However, there are several brakes on the road to political upheaval in Thailand.
– In fair elections, the winning parties should be able to form a government. In Thailand, however, there is a big risk that appointments are handled with political games, regardless of the election result, says Thitinan.
He reminds that in previous years, the power elite has secured its position through coups and lawsuits.
The uncertainty is increased by the fact that, based on the 2017 constitution, the senate appointed by the military gets to participate in the election of the prime minister.
– The elections will decide whether Thailand will become an increasingly conservative bureaucracy or whether the country will cheer up with a different government and find a new direction, Professor Thitinan says.