In the spotlight: Towards a new escalation in the war in Ukraine

In the spotlight Towards a new escalation in the war

Vladimir Putin has just announced the partial mobilization of the reservists. Will the war escalate? What if he went even further by decreeing general mobilization? Hypotheses that are reinforced in view of the latest events.

Until now, remember Le Figaro, the fighting is simply described as a “special military operation” by the Kremlin, which implies that Russia is not strictly speaking in a state of war. Butpoints to the newspaper, the difficulties encountered on the battlefield and the prospect that the pro-Russian regions of Ukraine will soon become an integral part of Russian territory while they are under Ukrainian fire, all this could cause the Russian leader to reconsider his position . This is in any case what suggests a bill presented yesterday to the Duma. The lower house of the Russian Parliament has indeed passed amendments adding the terms “mobilization” and “martial law” to the Criminal Code. The upper house could follow this Wednesday. These substantial modifications would (therefore) open a breach for the general mobilization, which Vladimir Putin has refused until now. »

To make accept a general mobilization…

For Releasethis hypothesis would not be without risk… “ Even if it were organized in an unequal way, namely by setting aside the young people of the big cities of the country, the general mobilization would represent a very significant social risk for the Kremlin. His interest would be limited on the ground and would represent a new admission of weakness for public opinion.

However, recognize Liberation, if all Russians have not understood what their army has gone to do in Kherson, Melitopol or Kharkiv in recent months, they have had eight years to integrate the discourse of a “Donbass genocide” broadcast daily on television . By annexing these lands, as with the Crimea, the Kremlin will be able to give substance to the threat and perhaps make accept an almost general mobilization and the entry into an official war. A war that Vladimir Putin would like to “end as soon as possible”, according to the presidents of Turkey and India, who had the opportunity to speak with him last week. »

Rather rushed referendums…

Another resurgence of tension: the pro-Russian authorities of the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporijjia and Kherson have announced the forthcoming holding of referenda for attachment to Moscow.

A ” hasty decision », raises The worldwho ” aroused surprise and condemnation, especially among Ukraine’s allies in Europe and the United States. In these countries, the initiative is seen as a way for Vladimir Putin to try to regain control (…) after weeks of retreat of his troops on the ground in the face of the counter-offensive by Ukrainian forces. From now on, Westerners fear, a possible annexation of the occupied territories could mean an extension of the conflict if Moscow were to call for general mobilization in order to seek to defend them, at a time when the front line is changing from one day to the next in certain places. For the most pessimistic, still falls Le Monde, the risk could also be that of a possible recourse to nuclear weapons if, by chance, the fighting which will continue were to be considered as an “existential” risk by Russia. »

Iran: the courage of women

Also on the front page, the excitement in Iran and around the world, after the death of Mahsa Amini. This 22-year-old Iranian girl, detained by the morality police for letting strands of hair protrude from her veil, died while in police custody. A suspicious death, to say the least, which set a large part of the country ablaze. ” Iran: the courage of women “, title The Parisian. ” Today, comments on the newspaper, there are hundreds of them all over the country, in the name of Mahsa, in the name of their sisters, their friends, their mothers… who defy the glares, orders and whippings of their executioners. Madly courageous women who get up to burn these scarves that suffocate them, women who reveal themselves, let their hair down and show faces that radiate. In front, continues Le Parisien, the masks fall and the regime panics because they become too dangerous. Too independent. So we arrest, we imprison, we threaten and we terrorize. But nothing helps and Mahsa’s first name seems like a breaking wave (…). »