February 12, 2025. Vladimir Putin won his phone. At the end of the line, Ahmed al-Chaara, new president of the Syrian Arab Republic for the transition period. The two leaders discuss the political, commercial, economic links between their countries. Russia wishes to “improve the socio-economic situation in Syria”. A few days later, she sent a plane to deliver the equivalent of $ 23 million in banknotes in Damascus and addresses an official invitation to the Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs. And this, even though Qatar and Saudi Arabia have refrained from providing the millions of dollars in budget aid they had discussed, for fear of sanctions. People aware of talks confirm this in Wall Street Journal : Russia is ready to discuss the terms of the agreements signed under the chairmanship of Bashar el-Assad.
Gas fields at the extradition from Bashar El -Assad
In reality, discussions began when the Russian Foreign Deputy Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, and the special envoy of Vladimir Putin for Syria, Alexandre Laventiev, arrived in the country in January. Their objective was clear: to negotiate the future of the Russian air base of Hmeimim and the naval base of Tartous located on the Syrian coast. Military infrastructure essential to the Kremlin, which allow it to considerably expand its presence in the region. But according to informed sources of negotiations, talks quickly extended to other challenges than defense.
Investments in the gas fields and ports, potential apologies of Moscow for its role in bombing during the civil war, asks for new Syrian authorities for the extradition of Bashar el-Assad: since the fall of the old regime, negotiations have focused on a range of subjects. According to European and Syrian officials informed of talks, interviewed by the American daily, Russia, however, refused to discuss the last point, namely the request for issuing the former dictator.
Faced with this refusal, the Syrian negotiators made another request: the repatriation of the funds which had been transferred by the Old Regime to Russia. According to customs files consulted by the Wall Street Journalthe Syrian central bank sent around $ 250 million to a state bank in Moscow between 2018 and 2019. Assad family members also bought more than $ 40 million apartments in luxury skyscrapers in Russia, according to a 2019 report of the global anti -corruption group Witness.
A giving-back relationship
A few days before the fall of the regime of the former head of state, Russia had qualified its new interlocutors, the Syrian rebels, as terrorists. If the Kremlin changes position today, it is because it has everything to win. Moscow is faced with an opportunity to both increase its economic weight, but also to keep its military bases on the territory. Russia has few alternatives elsewhere. It has access to air bases in Libya, but failed to establish a naval base, according to Libyan, European and American officials. For its part, Syria wishes to diversify its allies so as not to rely exclusively on Turkey, at a time when the influence of Turkey and Iran is growing.
The moment is all the more appropriate for Russia as the Allies of the United States in the Middle East are waiting to know the position of the Trump administration on Syria. Moscow therefore has the opportunity to maintain its presence on the territory. Even better, to strengthen it.