Donald Trump was very active in the Middle East during his first term. He had recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. He had redefined the parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. Then he was the architect of the Abraham Accords which allowed, in 2020, the recognition of Israel by four Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The American president had succeeded in bringing his allies together in the region, against a backdrop of concerns about Iran. But four years later, it is a Middle East with a different face that he is preparing to return to.
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In the Near and Middle East, Donald Trump, elected to the White House on November 5maintains strong allies. Many leaders in the region wanted to see him win the presidential race against Kamala Harris. Some, like Benyamin Netanyahumade no secret of it. The Israeli Prime Minister was even one of the very first leaders to congratulate the Republican candidate on his victory.
During Donald Trump’s first term, the two leaders showed great proximity. And the American president has multiplied the signs of support for his Israeli ally: recognition of Jerusalem – a city disputed by the Palestinians and officially recognized by the UN as international – as the capital of Israel, recognition of the annexation of the Golan conquered from Syria and a declaration which stipulated that Washington no longer considered the settlements as “ contrary to international law “.
The Trump-Netanyahu alliance should continue. Barely elected and not yet taking office, the future president sent signals appreciated by the Israeli right and far right in power in the country. Mike Huckabee, evangelical Protestant and supporter of Israeli colonization of the West Bank, has been named as the next U.S. ambassador to Israel.
“ It is clear that Mr. Huckabeewho visits Israel very regularly, has a unique understanding of this country and the entire region, the challenges we face, the paths to peace and what is needed to achieve it », welcomed David Mencer, the spokesperson for the Israeli government.
The Gulf Monarchies and Trump’s Victory
But this alliance will be tested by another axis dear to the future American president: that with the Gulf monarchies. They also wanted to see the victory of the Republican candidate. But for diametrically opposed reasons. “ There has been a fairly favorable reception to Mr. Trump’s re-election and for one reason: it is the feeling that the President Joe Biden did not have much influence over Mr. Netanyahu in trying to stop the war », Judge Bertrand Besancenot, former French ambassador to Qatar and then to Saudi Arabia.
“ Under these conditions, it was better, from the point of view of these countries, to count on a strong man like Mr. Trump who, even if he was clearly pro-Israeli, had leverage on Mr. Netanyahu that Mr. Biden did not have », he continues, today an advisor within the ADIT group for companies wanting to develop their activities in the Gulf.
During Donald Trump’s first term, common concerns about Iran were the driving force behind Israel’s rapprochement with the Gulf countries. The existence of a common enemy had led these allies from the United Stateswho officially did not have diplomatic relations, to have a public dialogue. Until the normalization of relations of Israel with the United Arab Emirates, as well as with Bahrain, a few months before the end of Donald Trump’s mandate.
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“ Collective genocide »
But since then, the two camps have drifted apart. Their differences on the Palestinian issue, which had for a time been behind their own interests, have resurfaced with the war in Gaza and now at Lebanon. Latest example: last week, while Saudi Arabia organized an extraordinary summit of the Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Conference.
Faced with the leaders of more than fifty countries, Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Ben Salman expressed “ its condemnation and absolute rejection of the collective genocide committed by Israel against the brotherly Palestinian people “. He also reiterated that there would be no no normalization of relations between his country and Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state.
“ The crown prince’s language was extremely firm », notes Bertrand Besancenot. And for the former ambassador in Riyadh, “ it was a message to President Donald Trump to tell him that the Gulf States want to remain an ally of the United States, but that there are things on which they have very strong positions and that they have no intention of sweeping them under the rug at all “.
Central subject of Iran
The Gulf countries also have an analysis that diverges from that of Israel concerning Iran. During Donald Trump’s first term, everyone supported withdrawing from the agreement on Iranian nuclear power and the reestablishment of sanctions. Now, the Gulf monarchies have resumed dialogue with Iran. Saudi Arabia, for example, has normalized relations with Tehran, previously regional rivals.
“ There is a distrust that remains towards the Iranian regime, there should be no doubt about it », Moderates Bertrand Besancenot. “ The restoration of relations with Iran is not a change of alliance or appeasement, but there is a dialogue which is reestablished to avoid misunderstandings », he adds. “ And there is a very strong desire on the part of the Gulf States to avoid confrontation in the region. Because they are perfectly aware that if there was a conflict with Iran, they would not be able to attract international investors to their major projects, diversify their economies even though that is their priority. »
Over the past four years, the Gulf monarchies have accelerated their emancipation from American supervision: they have developed their links with China, have strong cooperation with Russia within the OPEC+ group of oil producing countries And joins groups of emerging countries, such as the Brics.
“ There is the desire to preserve a strong strategic relationship with the United States, but they also intend to be more autonomous, to play their role in a world which is becoming multipolar. », analyzes Bertrand Besancenot. Before warning: “ President Donald Trump will face people who have changed, who have their own goals and who intend to negotiate them. »
Also readIn the occupied West Bank, return of Trump or not, Palestinians are suffering colonization