Could Ukrainian forces come to lose their most important war – the Russian region of Koursk – in the coming weeks? The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Oleksandre Syrsky, announced on Monday March 10, “strengthening” his military contingent in the Oblast, where Moscow has claimed significant advances in recent days, as the United States released their Ukrainian ally.
According to the British news agency Reutersthe Russian forces continued to move forward on Monday in the Oblast, “as part of a vast encirclement operation aimed at forcing thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to flee or surrender.” Moscow has launched an offensive of paratroopers in recent days “to cut the supply lines of Ukraine and the potential withdrawal routes”.
Ukrainian troops have been occupying several territories in the Koursk border region since this summer, where they launched a large offensive in August 2024, aimed at putting pressure on Moscow, in the event of future territorial negotiations. Of the 1,300 square kilometers conquered by the army of kyiv, 800 had been recovered in mid-February by the Russian forces, which seem to continue their progress in a dazzling manner. “Over the past four days, Russian troops have taken over in the region as many territories as in a few months,” said Russian milblogist Rybar, close to the Ministry of Defense.
The support of North Korean soldiers
The American reflection group Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which regularly produces analyzes on the state of the battlefield, confirms an “intensification of Russian activity in the region”, and the taking of several localities around Sudja. An advance permitted by the support of the North Korean forces, which deployed 12,000 men there from October 2024. According to the Ukrainian media Suspilne, quoted by the ISW, two battalions of the North Korean forces would operate near Sudja. Appearing to be better trained, they “act more consistently”. A reference to the testimonies of North Korean soldiers denouncing important losses, after being sent to the front without preparation.
“The Russian offensive seriously puts Ukraine in difficulty, at a time when the spring thaw transforms the roads into muddy tracks. Should it withdraw from Koursk, and if yes, can it do it without rushing to the border under the intense fire of the Russians?” Reuters analysis.
In parallel, the Russian forces maintain their efforts in East Ukraine, to repel Ukrainian troops from the border with the Russian Oblast of Belgorod, and in order to get closer to artillery in the city of Kharkiv. Moscow also plans to capture the rest of the separatist regions of Lougansk and Donetsk. Ukrainian forces recently advanced there, near Totretsk and Pokrovsk. Finally, to the south, Russia maintains its positions, progressing in the west of the Oblast of Zaporijia.
Penalized by the American withdrawal
In bad position, Ukraine is strongly penalized by the disengagement of the United States. “The temporal correlation between the suspension of American information sharing [le 5 mars, NDLR] And the start of the collapse of the Ukrainian salient in Koursk is remarkable, “notes the Isw. While Russia has only obtained progressive gains for several months, Ukrainian information began to report rapid advances in last week.
The suspension of military aid also affects the Ukrainian air defense, the United States allowing the action of radar jammers used by planes to defend itself against strikes in the hinterland. The balance of power threatens to be more and more uneven: so far, Ukrainian artillery drew on average a shell, against three on the side of the Russians.
Ukraine is preparing for talks with high American diplomats in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump puts pressure on a rapid end of war. For their part, the European allies are trying to continue to provide material and financial assistance to kyiv. Sunday, the French Minister of Defense, Sébastien Lecornu, announced that Paris would use interest on frozen Russian assets to provide aid of 195 million euros to Ukraine.
European partners are also looking for a solution to provide Ukraine with trade satellite images, to compensate for the information that the United States has ceased to provide.