In the 2014 Donbass, they were called “little green men”. “Polis people” said the Russian media to qualify these masked Putin soldiers to assault eastern Ukraine, rich in iron, coal and lithium. A decade later, a slew of other “small green men” rages in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a state large like four times France, which houses 60 to 80 % of the world’s world reserves, an essential ore for the manufacture of Smartphones. Fighters sponsored by a neighboring state that denies everything, exactly like Russia before him. All evidence of Rwanda’s involvement with the “M23” rebels are however there, documented by Six UN reports : “The conquest of new territories could not have been done without the support of the DRF [NDLR : l’armée rwandaise]which directed targeted operations and used high -tech weapons, “said the latest, published in late December 2024.
It was before the M23 took Goma, the largest city in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo. For months, the rebels have been nibbling the territory of the North Kivu province, supported by 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers, who came with their soil-to-air missiles and scrambling devices capable of neutralizing the air resources of the enemy. Faced with them, a routing Congolese army, unable to resume the slightest square centimeter of earth.
Influence
January 26, 2025: After weeks of encirclement, the guerrillas enter Goma. Neither the army, nor the peacekeepers, nor the mercenaries graduated by Kinshasa – for some, French – manage to stop them. In four days, 700 people were killed and 2,800 injured in the fighting, according to the World Health Organization. In Kigali, the high rankings jubilant. “Goma is released,” said one of the bosses of the Rwandan secret services (the “Niss”, known for his ruthless hunt for opponents of the regime of Paul Kagame) to his contacts. In public, the speech is quite different. “Rwanda has always pleaded in favor of a political solution to the conflict,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on February 2. On the ground, however, the military confrontation has lasted for thirty years. “It is the fifth major rebellion in this country supported by Rwanda since 1996, underlines Jason Stearns, co -founder of the Research Group on Congo at New York University (Nyu). Kigali considers eastern DRC as part of its sphere of influence. “
To understand this, you have to go back to 1994, the dark year of the Tutsi genocide. On July 4, the maquisards led by Commander Paul Kagame put an end to the Hutu supremacist regime who exterminated, in three months, 800,000 men, women and children, mostly Tutsi. In the process, Kagame becomes vice-president. Then, president, six years later. An obsession will not leave him anymore: watch the supporters of the “Hutu Power”, the infamous ideology at the origin of the genocide. Fanatics entrenched in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where they went with weapons and luggage in the summer of 1994. In the east of this country, the second largest on the continent, they form a militia named FDLR. Their hope? Take power one day in Rwanda … to “finish work”. An existential threat to Kigali’s eyes.
“The FDLRs would be around 2500 today, according to the widest estimates, points out onesphorus Sematumba, researcher at the International Crisis Group. They continue their military training in the bush and still recruit young people. Not just old genocidal in 1994. They are part of a mystical logic, as if they were in crusade. ” But the militia has lost its power in recent years. “His latest incursion in Rwanda dates from 2001, recalls Jason Stearns. Since then, there have been small raids through the border but these operations cannot justify the current response, which moves 2 million Congolese in the east of The DRC. ” For Kagame, obviously, yes. “Some, who do not know what they are talking about, say that the FDLR are only a handful, and that we are exaggerating. But even if there are few of them, why are they still, after all these years?”, he wonders in an interview with Young Africa in March 2024.
The question deserves, it is true, to be asked because, not only were the attempts to dismantle this group were in vain, but in addition the Congolese army took the cause for these militiamen. “The Congolese government, despite repeated calls to end its FDLR support, continued to use […] The FDLR as auxiliary “, deplores the UN in its latest report. An all found reason, on the side of the Rwandan authorities, to redouble in force, alongside the rebels of the M23, and satisfy the passage of other ambitions.” The more they Advance, the more they test the weaknesses of the Congolese army, the more their appetite grows, notes onesphorus Sematumba. Goma was a terrible test: Congolese President Tshisekedi found himself like a naked king, his army collapsed in a week, governors and military leaders fled by boat, the others went to the Rwandan police . The M23 and Rwanda will want to take advantage of this dynamic to gain as much land as possible. “
Mining
Because the stake is not only defensive. Far from it. “Rwanda wants a Kigali-compatible administration in the DRC, at least in its eastern part,” adds this researcher. And for good reason, the region has a mining manna that all border countries are tearing. “In 2023, Rwanda exported $ 1.1 billion minerals. It is estimated that a large part comes from eastern DRC underlines Jason Stearns. This export income represents a quarter of the Rwanda budget! It is therefore clear that these minerals play a crucial role in the country’s economy. “
Gold alone represents more than 80 % of these exports. Another major resource in the region, the Coltan, from which the Tantalus is extracted, crucial for the manufacture of portable electronic devices. Last April, the M23 is getting its hands on Rubaya, where the largest coltan mine in the Great Lakes region is located. The rebels establish a parallel administration there which pilots mining extraction, its transport and its taxation. “At least 150 tonnes of coltan have been fraudulently exported per month to Rwanda and mixed with Rwandan production,” reports the UN group of experts.
So far, however, few countries have been offended. Last February, in full advance of the rebels, the European Union and Rwanda even sign a memorandum of understanding to enhance the exploitation of minerals by the East-African small state. He “will help ensure a sustainable supply of raw materials”, notes Brussels. The previous year, the twenty-seven sign an investment plan at 900 million euros for the benefit of Rwanda. Since 2022, the EU has also paid 40 million to the Rwandan army for its mobilization to Mozambique against an Islamist insurrection.
Paul Kagame, “Mr. Solutions”
“In the past ten years, Rwanda has led hyperactive and very skilful diplomacy to appear as a reliable partner for the international community, unlike the DRC, governed by a Kleptocracy, in terms of stratospheric corruption,” explains journalist Christophe Rigaud, Director of the Afrikarabia.com information site, dedicated to news in the DRC. On all fronts, Paul Kagame turns into “Mr. Solutions” for these Western partners: second contributor to the United Nations peacekeepingRwanda sends its men to the aid of the Central African Republic, a counterweight to the Russian Mercenaries of Wagner, much appreciated by Washington and Paris. In Mozambique, the soldiers of Kagame fight against Islamists who hampered the giant gas project of Total in the Cabo Delgado region. Finally, the Rwandan president proposes to the British conservative government to welcome asylum seekers illegally entered into its territory – the agreement, announced in 2022, has since been abandoned. But that’s not all. “Rwanda wants to weigh in all possible international bodies, and it succeeds, adds Jason Stearns. The secretary general of La Francophonie is Rwandai; just like the manager of the Economic Commission for Africa at the UN and the Vice- President of the African Union Commission. on social networks. “
The “Kagame method” has proven itself: in addition to verbal convictions, international reactions to date remain quite timid. In 2012, it was much different, during the first Goma taken by the M23, formed a few months earlier. At the time, donors had cut $ 240 million in Rwanda aid, even before the rebels’ entrance to the city. The American president, Barack Obama, had called Paul Kagame, and the rebels fell. Thirteen years later, the world has changed. Vladimir Putin crossed the Rubicon in Ukraine. Back in the White House, Donald Trump wants to seize Greenland and calls for “cleaning” Gaza. 11,000 kilometers from Washington, Paul Kagame, also a supporter of “peace by force”, could well end up getting what he wants: a “protectorate” administered by rebels under his thumb.
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