Tensions between Russia and the United States intensified even more when Russian fighter jets destroyed an American drone in the Black Sea yesterday.
It was the first time that Russia shot down an American drone. Russia expert Hannah Smith estimates that the United States will not take any retaliatory measures as a result of the incident.
– It cannot be assumed that a bigger escalation will start from this yet.
– It would make no sense for the United States, for example, to shoot down a Russian fighter jet. The US would not gain anything in that, it would make the situation even worse.
There are two accounts of the events over the Black Sea.
According to the United States, two Russian Su-27 fighters disturbed the American drone for more than half an hour, and poured fuel on it. The intention was to possibly damage or disrupt the drone’s equipment.
Eventually, one of the fighters collided with the drone’s propeller, causing it to derail into the sea.
Russia’s description of the course of events differs from this. According to it, the American drone fell into the sea as a result of its own “sudden maneuvers”.
Russia denies that its fighter jet hit the drone. According to it, the Russian fighters did not use their weapons, and returned safely to their home field.
“The United States can become active in the Black Sea”
Hanna Smith states that it is likely that as a result of the attack, the United States will become even more active, at least in the Black Sea. For example, the United States can increase its surveillance flights in the region.
– The special thing about this is that this happened in a very tense situation and not very far from the battlefield of Ukraine.
Smith points out that the United States has not previously directly retaliated against Iran, for example, because the country has shot down American drones in the Persian Gulf.
– There is no example of direct retaliation in such cases, so it would be really strange if such a thing happened now. If there were more shooting down of drones, then the situation could be different.
Is it a tease or a deliberate attack?
The key question is whether Russia was just trying to disrupt the US drone, or whether the purpose was to force it into the sea.
The United States reports that it has repeatedly observed dangerous behavior by Russian pilots in the region.
According to the British Broadcasting Company BBC (you will switch to another service)this would suggest that the Russian fighter may have mistakenly gotten too close to the US drone.
But if it is a deliberate attack against an American aircraft, the event is a provocation that can lead to escalation, i.e. the expansion of hostile actions.
In this case, the Kremlin wants to test what the US response is.
According to the US, its “MQ-9 aircraft was performing a routine mission in international airspace when it was intercepted and engaged by a Russian aircraft”. The result was the destruction of the American plane.
Russia challenges the United States
Russia has demanded that the United States stop “hostile” flights near its border. The request was made by the Russian ambassador to the United States in the Telegram messaging service Anatoly Antonovwho said Russia considers the use of any military equipment to be hostile.
Russia expert Hanna Smith states that Russia tried to provoke the United States. The goal is also to get a message conveyed to the Russian public about the conflict between Russia and the West.
– It is advantageous for Russia that it shows its ability to challenge the United States and brings up the conflict between Russia and the West. These are important to the Russian story about the war that is going on in Ukraine.
– In the Russian media, Russia is waging more war against the West than against Ukraine. That story needs all kinds of confirmation.
“Direct contact between the West and Russia”
Senior researcher at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute think tank Elisabeth Braw says in an interview with the news agency Reuters (you will switch to another service)that the incident is the first of its kind during Russia’s war in Ukraine:
– This escalates the conflict when it is about the first publicized direct contact between the West and Russia, Braw said.
In February, Ukraine accused Russia of firing missiles through Romanian and Moldovan airspace. However, according to the Ukrainian newspaper Kyiv Independent, Romania denied the information. On the other hand, Moldova protested, and invited the Russian ambassador for an interview because of what happened.
The drone can carry missiles and bombs
The US has used MQ-9 Reaper drones – the name means “reaper” – in the Black Sea during the war with Russia. The drone is the size of a small airplane; its length is ten meters and the wingspan is about 20 meters.
According to the US Air Force, the MQ-9 can climb to an altitude of more than 15 kilometers, and can collect intelligence information for up to 27 hours. In addition to spy equipment, they can carry weapons such as Hellfire missiles and laser-guided bombs.
The MQ-9, introduced in 2001, is heavier than the MQ-1 Predator drone.
There are more than three hundred drow like the one destroyed in the United States. They are also used by other countries, especially European NATO countries.
The Finnish Air Force has also tested the MQ-9 drone.
Read this article for the latest information on the Russian attack