Everything suggests that the Pakistani legislative elections, scheduled for February 8, will be neither free nor transparent. The Pakistan Human Rights Commission was also concerned at the start of the year about possible “pre-election rigging”. These elections will likely take place in the absence of the country’s most popular politician, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who has been incarcerated since August 2023. At 71, he was ousted from his post in April 2022 after falling out with the all-powerful army, which nevertheless brought him to power in 2018. Once in opposition, he led an unprecedented campaign against the military – who ruled the country during a great part of its history.
Prosecuted in hundreds of cases, he has little hope of getting out of prison. The former playboy accuses the military of being in cahoots with the dynasties in power for many years, the Sharif and the Bhutto, to crush his movement and of doing everything possible to erase it from the political landscape. The candidatures of Imran Khan and the majority of leaders of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party have been rejected by the Election Commission.
“The public will inevitably react”
Could the ousting of the former cricket champion cause the country in the grip of a serious economic crisis to fall into chaos? “During the 2018 elections and Imran Khan coming to power, the same accusations of rigging were leveled against the PTI, and I think we will see a similar pattern. Except that the media and civil society will not be able to be silenced,” said Farhan Siddiqui, professor at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. “What if Nawaz Sharif [également ancien Premier ministre] who has been banned from holding any public office is allowed to run, then this will lead to greater political instability because the public will inevitably react,” continues the researcher.
“In 2018, Nawaz Sharif was in prison and Imran Khan won the elections thanks to the support of the state and the army, this time things are different because Imran Khan is speaking directly to the public, especially through social media “, adds Qamar Cheema, Pakistani political analyst. But, according to him, the public is so fatalistic that an outburst of crowds in the streets is unlikely. Still worth watching.
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