The appeal for help launched to Moscow by the authorities of this separatist Moldovan region has raised the specter of a Ukrainian-style scenario. But the reality is more nuanced.
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It is a thin strip of land to the east of the Moldova, on the border with Ukraine. A region populated by 465,000 inhabitants, the majority of whom are predominantly Russian-speaking Eastern Slavs, with its own capital, its own government and its own currency. A self-proclaimed republic which, after a secession followed by a short civil war in 1992, maintains ambivalent relations with the legitimate government sometimes marked by sudden bouts of fever.
The latest occurred on Wednesday February 28. Gathered in extraordinary congress, MPs from Transnistria called the Russian Parliament has ” implement measures to protect » their territory in the face of “ unprecedented threats of an economic, socio-humanitarian and military-political nature » from Moldova. Separatist President Vadim Krasnosselski went even further, denouncing “ a policy of genocide ”, through economic pressures, “ physical », legal and linguistic. Russian diplomacy quickly responded, ensuring that it had as a “priority” the “ protection » residents of Transnistria, adding that Moscow would “ examine carefully » the request of local authorities. Without further details.
That was all it took for the specter of a Ukrainian-style scenario to arise. “ The calls’ emphasis on protecting Transnistrian rights and freedoms is likely aimed at establishing conditions for the Kremlin to apply a similar narrative on preventing “discrimination” and “genocide” against “Russians” in Moldova, as the Kremlin did before and during the invasion of Ukraine “, thus advanced the Institute for the Study of Waran American research center specializing in defense and foreign affairs issues.
An invasion impossible in the short term
The rhetoric is indeed reminiscent of that of the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, in 2014 then 2022, which Vladimir Putin used as a pretext to attack Ukraine. The similarities between Moldova and Ukraine are numerous. Like Ukraine, Moldova is a former Soviet republic today led by a president who wants to bring her country closer to the European Union, but who currently does not benefit from any protection – neither from the EU nor from of NATO. Like Donbass, Transnistria is populated by a Russian-speaking majority whom Moscow considers “compatriots”.
The comparison ends there. Because unlike eastern Ukraine, there is no territorial continuity between the Moldovan separatist enclave and Russia. It is therefore impossible to transport troops or weapons there by land, unless the Odessa region is captured. “ But opening a front here would force Russia to disperse its troops, points out Thomas Merle, doctor in political geography. So a priori, as long as it is stuck in the east, it has no interest in opening a new front here. »Moscow cannot count on its approximately 1,500 soldiers stationed for 30 years in Transnistria as part of what it calls “ a peacekeeping operation “. From this point of view, a short-term invasion is unthinkable.
Above all, relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol have largely normalized. “ There are cultural cooperation agreements between the two entities, recognition agreements which allow, for example, young people who begin their studies at the University of Tiraspol to continue them at that of Chisinau, with diplomas which are more or less recognized . Ultimately, it is pragmatism that dominates », notes Thomas Merle. “ There is a form of accommodation on both sides, whether on an economic, political or sporting level, supports Florent Parmentier, secretary general of the Sciences Po Political Research Center (Cevipof). Every day, thousands of Transnistrians come to work in Chisinau. And the first club in the Moldovan football championship is Sheriff Tiraspol; it’s hard to imagine that two entities that play football every Sunday could suddenly go to war. »
Economic reasons
By launching this appeal to Russia, Tiraspol is in reality trying to force Chisinau to abandon the customs duties imposed on imports from Transnistria, from which it was until then exempt and which constitute a serious shortfall for its already weakened economy. by the war in Ukraine. “ If it can no longer trade as easily as before with Ukraine, it is forced to turn to the European market, via Moldova, and therefore to respect its standards, which contributes to weakening its budget », specifies Florent Parmentier. The issue is also security, notes geography doctor Thomas Merle: “ The ethnic composition of Transnistria is approximately 40% Moldovans, 35% Russians and 28% Ukrainians, which the conflict in Ukraine risks dividing. The appeal to Russia is a way to unite the population. »
For Moscow, which Western chancelleries accuse of being in the maneuver, it is a question of preventing any rapprochement of Moldova with the European Union. “ Russia has been relying on Transnistria to control all of Moldova for 30 years », observes Florent Parmentier, from Cevipof. Already in 2006, during a referendum not recognized internationally, 97% of the population of Transnistria voted to join the Russian Federation, without the latter taking action. “ Moscow has no interest in recognizing the independence of Transnistria, because once it does, it will no longer have any means of pressure », warns Thomas Merle.
But over time, this lever could well lose its effectiveness. Because Transnistria, once the economic engine of Moldova thanks to its industrial activity, now has a GDP per capita almost half that of the rest of the country. “ If on an economic level, the Transdniestrian population had every interest in seceding 30 years ago, it is the opposite today », Considers Thomas Merle. There remains the energy question. The separatist enclave continues to exercise control over Moldova by providing it with 90% of its electricity thanks to gas offered by Russia.
Despite repeated attempts at destabilization, Moldovan President Maia Sandu, candidate for re-election next November, is determined to lead her country to European integration. Will it succeed in taking Transnistria with it? We will then undoubtedly have to deal with Russia.
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