In the space of a few days, the Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum experienced a real emotional elevator. On January 29, a few days before the fateful deadline of February 1, the day when Donald Trump planned to impose his customs duties, she still displayed her optimism, claiming that she did not believe in their implementation. His hopes were not unfounded: after all, the American president had just operated on such a lightning turn on the Colombian file. In 2019, already, its threats to “close the border” if Mexico did not end illegal immigration had not materialized.
This time, nothing happened as planned. Donald Trump confirmed the implementation of his favorite protectionist weapon … before turning two days later, on February 3, after a telephone call, by granting Mexico a stay of a month. The customs barriers were ultimately not erected.
Since the return of the Republican president to the White House, Mexico has activated the “crisis management” mode. And faced with his invective on the thorny subjects of illegal immigration and drug trafficking, Claudia Sheinbaum played the card of appeasement. “She is open to dialogue, but above all cautious: she knows that this relationship can explode at any time,” observes Lila Abed, director of the Mexican department at the Wilson Center. However, there is no question of losing his composure or showing signs of weakness in front of his fellow citizens. The president has hammered it several times: her strategy will be cooperation, not subordination. “On the one hand, she tries to reassure Trump, but on the other, she adopts a moderately nationalist position, speaking of non -negotiable sovereignty, for her voters,” analyzes Tony Payan, director of Mexico Center at the Rice University, in Houston.
Economic dependence
Unlike Canada, Mexico has not been quick to detail its reprisal measures following the announcements of February 1 … in the hope of reaching an agreement. “The Mexican government does not really have any choice than to give in to the requirements of Trump given its dependence on the United States,” admits Tony Payan. For good reason, the balance of power between the two countries is unbalanced: the United States absorb around 80 % of Mexican exports. The “Maquiladoras” – factories concentrated near the northern border and manufacturer of export products – are an engine of its economy. Electronic equipment and the automobile are on the front line. And the production channels between the two countries are so nested that some products cross the border several times before the final assembly.
In the scenario of a trade war, Mexico has a lot to lose. The country’s GDP would be immediately penalized by a tax of 25 % on exports – up to being amputated by 2 % in 2032, according to the Peterson Institute, compared to the basic scenario. But American consumers would also pay the costs, notably undergoing flambée in flagship products such as lawyer, tomatoes or tequila. These agricultural exchanges also represent a negotiation lever for Mexico City. “Now the priority for Mexico is to mobilize its allies in the United States – republican members of the congress and the governors of the Republican agricultural states of which Mexico is the first trading partner – by telling them that in the event of rights of Customs, they will be the first to be affected by Mexican reprisal measures, “advises Arturo Sarukhan, former Ambassador of Mexico to the United States.
Aware of this dependence and the expectations of his interlocutor, Claudia Sheinbaum is exercised at the art of compromise. She is committed to deploying 10,000 guards on her border to fight against drug trafficking. But despite his good will, satisfying Trump’s claims on immigration promises to be an arduous task. “His predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, had tried to launch an immigration control policy, notably by mobilizing the National Guard initially created to fight against the Narcotrafic cartels … Without convincing results”, recalls Sylvain Bellefontaine, economist to the French Development Agency (AFD). Not sure, moreover, that the Government has the means to welcome and help the expenses expelled from the United States on its territory. “Lopez Obrador left a huge debt behind him and the funding of this welcome will be difficult to assume,” said Tony Payan. Added to this is another insidious effect of the expulsion of immigrants: money transfers from the United States to Mexico represented more than 3 % of GDP in 2024. Their judgment would therefore affect the economy.
Washington rather than Beijing
In addition to immigration and drug trafficking, Mexico is also criticized for its business links with China. Donald Trump said he would not tolerate Chinese factories to set up in Mexico and export vehicles to the United States. In Canada too, we are annoyed. At the end of 2024, the Prime Minister of Ontario, Doug Ford, had pointed out the “cheap Chinese products” which pass through Mexico to the rest of the continent, calling Mexico to choose his camp.
This controversy is not taken lightly by the Mexican government, because it could harm it for the revision, in 2026, of the Canada-US-Mexico (ACEUM) agreement, which replaced Alena in 2020. Mexico is focusing on this partnership, but he also knows that nothing is acquired. Especially since in the American friendship race, Canada seems to have taken a step ahead. “To date, no secretary of the Mexican government has come to Washington since the entry of the Sheinbaum team. Conversely, the Canadian government has actively sought to establish a conversation with its American counterparts during the last months, “observes Arturo Sarukhan. Another not very reassuring signal: Doug Ford’s suggestion to conclude a separate agreement with the United States, and another with Mexico.
In response to these criticisms, Claudia Sheinbaum, a support slideshow, unveiled her mid-January “Mexico Plan”. On the program: strengthening local industry, massive investments and job creation. With the aim of bringing Mexico into the top 10 world powers. In reality, the country intends to kill two strokes one stone. “After taking advantage of the Sino-American trade war, Mexico wishes today to support its economy while meeting Trump’s requirements: replacing Chinese imports and increasing local content, especially in the automotive sector,” explains Sylvain Bellefontaine, of AFD. Some obstacles may nevertheless complicate its implementation. “The economic reality of Mexico is not currently in line with the ambitions of this plan: investors are often not convinced by the characteristics of the country in terms of energy availability and labor market”, LILD ABED.
Other subjects could invite themselves in discussions on ACEUM. “Mexico currently has a ‘water debt’ towards the United States, notably linked to the sharing of Rio Grande and Rio Colorado. Trump may use this issue in negotiations, says Jean-Louis Martin, researcher on the Latin America at IFRI.
Will Claudia Sheinbaum manage to have a long-time Trump? Will its strategy work until 2026? Difficult to say. Mexico escapes American pricing wrath for the moment. But, as Marios Carias, economist for North America notes at Coface: “Confidence between the two countries is weakened. This sword of Damocles will potentially remain above Mexico throughout Trump’s mandate”.
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