“We are the only secular and democratic forces today,” confides Erdelan*, a member of the Syrian Kurdistan Fighting Forces (FDS). “The groups that took power in Syria are Islamists, they don’t like the Kurds and want to destroy our project,” fears the young man, who has already experienced fighting against the Turks in Afrin in 2019. project is Rojava, a Kurdish enclave which is located on approximately 30% of Syrian territory, in the north-east of the country. As Mohammed al-Joulani, the new Syrian leader, descended towards Damascus, the Kurds were attacked in Manbij, west of the Euphrates, by the Syrian National Army (SNA), a group of armed and supported Islamist militias. by the Turks, notably via drones. On this flat ground, it is impossible for the Kurds, despite being seasoned fighters, to defend themselves correctly, regrets Erdelan. Under the aegis of the Americans, a ceasefire was able to be established between the ANS and the FDS, after the fall of Manbij and while the symbolic town of Kobane was being shelled. But attacks against the capital of the Kurdish resistance against ISIS continued, displacing up to 100,000 people.
The objective of the ANS? Push the Kurds back as far as possible. Ankara, which has 13 million Kurds on its territory, takes a very dim view of the experience of Rojava which has continued since 2013 for the approximately 2 million inhabitants who have wrested control of their territory thanks to the rebellion Syrian. This Kurdish autonomous zone in the north of the country, a democratic confederation, constitutes a political, feminist and secular utopia. A stone’s throw away is the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, the most prosperous area of post-Saddam Iraq. The dream of a Kurdish state, Turkey’s nightmare, is never very far away. For the Turks, the Syrian Kurdish forces, and in particular, within them, the YPG (People’s Protection Units) are considered terrorists, due to their links with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) of Turkey, in armed struggle against the Turkish government for four decades. “In this new era, the PKK-YPG terrorist organization will disappear sooner or later from Syria. The new Syrian government wants this as much as we do,” said Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Güler.
“The different Islamist and jihadist factions that overthrew Bashar al-Assad were united thanks to the hatred of the Baathist regime. Now, they need another enemy to maintain their semblance of unity: the Kurds,” assures Fabrice Balanche, specialist in the region, author of the reference work Lessons from the Syrian crisis (Odile Jacob). “Unless there is strong American support, they risk being eliminated from Syria before January 20, 2025, the date of Trump’s inauguration. Thus, the latter will be able to put the blame on Biden and reconnect with the Turkey on new bases”, highlights the researcher in a note written on his site. “We can hope that there is a system of government in Damascus and that the Kurds are part of the conversation,” says Henri Barkey, Middle East specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an American think tank. “But the Turks want to stop the conversation before it even happens,” he concedes. “It’s a big danger because the Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is not the type of person who accepts a “ no.” He is willing to take big risks to achieve his goals.”
“For these Islamic militias, the Kurds are disbelievers”
However, the security of Europe is partly at stake there, on the borders of the Syrian steppe, in camps where a few thousand damned souls of the Islamic State are detained. Since the defeat of Daesh against the Kurds supported by the international coalition, around 12,000 fighters have been in camps run by the FDS, a figure which rises to 50,000 when counting families, of different nationalities, including French. The future of the Kurds – and their ability to control these prisoners – appears more uncertain than ever, and is of great concern to chancelleries, particularly French ones. But without prompting very concrete action, whether in Paris or Berlin. Ilham Ahmed, co-president of Rojava, was received last week at the Elysée, but without necessarily receiving the expected support, according to sources close to the matter.
The most important ally remains the United States. By pragmatism more than by ideology, because the YPG forces have proven to be the most effective bulwark against Daesh. And because no Western country – in particular France, which has established the harshest return conditions – wants to recover its jihadist nationals, or their families. Will the arrival of Donald Trump change everything? “We saw through his tweets that he says he does not want to get involved. This is very worrying for the Syrian Democratic Forces,” judges Renad Mansour, researcher specializing in the region at Chatham House in London.
“In the new configuration, the Turks do not want there to be an autonomous region tomorrow that escapes their ‘friends’ in Damascus [NDLR : les rebelles islamistes de HTC]. In the minds of Turks, this autonomous entity must disappear. If the Americans fail to prevent it from disappearing, they could leave the entire Turkish-Syrian border, 30 kilometers deep, to the Turks. Where they would only install Arab communities to carry out ethnic cleansing”, accuses the writer Patrice Franceschi, author of several works on the Kurds and a fine expert in the field. “The objective is really to empty the entire border region, land ancestral of the Kurds, its populations and to Arabize and Islamize the region. Because for these Islamic militias, the Kurds are disbelievers,” warns Kendal Nezan, president of the Kurdish Institute of Paris.
“The Kurds are in a very precarious position,” adds Renad Mansour. In addition to the indispensable American support, they can nevertheless also count on that, discreet but constant, of the Israelis. The latter have an interest in preserving a fragmented Syria, and moreover, have historical affinities with the Kurds. Henri Barkey, of the CFR, is nevertheless more optimistic and does not believe that Trump will completely abandon the Syrian Kurds to their fate, in particular by withdrawing the troops still present: “The 900 American troops present in support have an essential deterrent effect. And we can measure very concretely what they are doing: they are stopping Daesh.”
* The first name has been changed
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