After a little more than seven months of foot on the foot on Russian territory, the battle of Koursk, launched last summer following a surprise offensive of Ukraine, could approach his epilogue. This Wednesday, March 12, Vladimir Putin visited his troops in the region and Moscow announced that he had taken up five localities, adding to the twelve other claimed the day before, in this border area where his forces have intensified their assaults in recent weeks. At the same time, the Ukrainian chief of staff, Oleksander Syrsky, who had wanted to reassure himself two days earlier, suggested that his troops were withdrawn. And Russian progression hardly pushes optimism. To date, the Ukrainian forces would only hold only a quarter of the territories which they had taken control last summer.
In the aftermath of preliminary discussions for talks, who were held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, between kyiv and Washington, this revival of the Russian counter-offensive fell as badly for Ukraine. And for good reason: he could make him lose one of his main negotiation levers. During an interview with the British Foreign Minister in early February, Volodymyr Zelensky said that the operation in Koursk would play a “very important” role in any diplomatic agreement with Russia. His ambition? Make the Russian territories captured against certain parts of the regions occupied by Moscow – whose forces control approximately 20 % of Ukraine.
“One card less” for negotiations
In a context of acceleration of the diplomatic calendar after the green light from Ukraine to the American proposal of ceasefies on March 11, the loss of this currency of exchange could weaken the Ukrainian position. Especially since in parallel, the Kremlin does not seem ready for any concession vis-à-vis its maximalist war goals. “It would be a” card “less in the discussions that are announced, sums up the general (2S) Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor -in -chief of the National Defense review. However, its importance was undoubtedly already to be qualified given the reduced area of the area held by the Ukrainians compared to that of the Russians. “
On the ground, the situation becomes more and more critical for kyiv. In recent days, the Russian military state and military bloggers have echoed an operation launched by soldiers inside a gas pipeline to strike behind the Ukrainian lines. According to the Ukrainian staff, which confirmed the operation, the Russian forces were “detected in time” and “destroyed”. According to geolocated data, the bulk of the fighting has now reached the suburbs of Sudja – a small town of 5,000 inhabitants and the main bastion in the hands of the Ukrainians in Koursk.
“The Russians seek to enclose them inside in a shears movement, points out General Nicolas Richoux, former commander of the 7th armored brigade. If the Ukrainians fail to stabilize the situation, the staff will have to ask the question of a withdrawal in the south in order to avoid a encirclement.” A nightmare scenario which, if he realized, would deprive the Ukrainians of thousands of men and several dozen armored vehicles engaged in the area.
Intelligence in question?
At this stage, the latter can however still rely on the P200 motorway to supply their troops present in the sector. “Mass will not be said as long as this logistics cord holds, resumes General Richoux. In addition, the Ukrainians will be able to use it to go back on foot and restore their forehead to south if necessary.”
Quickly after their flash offensive on August 6, the Ukrainians seized around 1,300 km2, meeting on their way a disparate defense made up of some 11,000 Russian soldiers, a large part of border guards and conscripts. A few weeks later, Moscow had put its forces in the walking of a walk and ordered the deployment of 40,000 additional men to which were subsequently added around 12,000 North Korean soldiers sent to reinforce by Pyongyang. At the cost of heavy losses, this aggregate then slowly nibbled the east and west flanks of the Ukrainian positions.
The situation has brutally deteriorated for Ukrainians in early March with a significant revival of Russian progression, in parallel with the suspension of American support decreed by Donald Trump. If it is unlikely that a break in the routing of equipment and ammunition is responsible for this crumbling of the front – due to already constituted stocks – the cessation of intelligence sharing could have weakened a Ukrainian defense already on the teeth after months of combat.
“His cut may have had short -term effects by partially blinding the forces present on the spot, notes General Richoux. It is possible that the Ukrainians had difficulty anticipating Russian attacks.” If after discussions in Saudi Arabia, Washington announced the “immediate” lifting of the suspension of military aid to kyiv, this will probably not be enough to restore the situation in Koursk.
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