Could the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raïssi in a helicopter crash shake up the Islamic Republic? Thierry Kellner is a lecturer at the Free University of Brussels and co-author with Mohammad-Reza Djalili of a History of contemporary Iran (Discovery). For him, the difficult economic context and the growing gap between a “sclerotic” and “gerontocratic” regime and a population which has undergone its demographic transition represent structural threats for an Iranian power caring less and less about its “facade” democratic, namely the holding of elections. But the real issue will be the succession of the Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenei, now aged 85… Interview.
L’Express: To what extent does the unexpected death of Ebrahim Raïssi represent an area of turbulence for the Iranian regime?
The president did not have a good image in Iran. The choice of a new candidate by the regime and the presidential election scheduled for June 28 will take place in a very degraded climate. The socio-economic situation is difficult, and the international environment is very turbulent. All these conditions mean that the replacement of Raïssi could open the door to surprises…
The last presidential election, in 2021, mobilized less than 50% of voters. This year, the legislative elections showed a participation rate of 40%. Will abstention further progress on June 28?
The choice of candidates is reduced since it is a game that is played within an increasingly restricted circle of power. The regime will select a candidate along the lines of Guide Khamenei, but who will once again be completely out of step with the population. We could therefore actually see even greater abstentionism.
Iran has long been a constitutional theocracy, requiring elections to legitimize power. This seems to be less and less the case…
The Islamic Republic wanted to provide itself with a democratic facade through elections in order to legitimize itself, while in the region, the Gulf monarchies do not have one. But even this today seems less and less important for Iranian power. The gap between oneself is more and more evident within the regime.
How bad is the economic situation? Inflation reaches 40%…
This is a serious situation for the population, marked by growing impoverishment. To understand the turbulence in Iran, we must take into account the conservative hardening of the regime, particularly for women, but also the very degraded socio-economic situation. The regime has thus multiplied the factors of discontent within its population. The Iranian economy is of course suffering from international sanctions, linked in particular to the nuclear issue. But there are also structural elements: the country has been very poorly managed for decades. These accumulations of difficulties create a favorable breeding ground for protest.
60% of Iranian students are women, and the fertility rate has fallen to 1.7, close to that of France. Do these demographics represent a threat to a theocracy?
The Iranian regime is very seriously concerned about this, since it has taken a series of pro-natalist measures, notably by reducing family planning. As girls’ education has been pushed forward, Iranians are unsurprisingly having fewer children. The country has made its demographic transition and follows a model close to that of the Western world. Which does not please the mullahs at all. Here again, there is a very strong gap between the level of development of the population and a totally sclerotic regime, which appears increasingly gerontocratic. The head of state is an 85-year-old cleric, while the population is still very young, even if it has far fewer children.
Will Raisi’s death have an influence on Iran’s foreign policy? This seems to be the preserve of the Guide as well as the Revolutionary Guards, whose power is increasingly important…
The Guide has the last word anyway. The Iranian president certainly participates in international conferences and goes to the United Nations – Raïssi had, for example, met Emmanuel Macron in New York in September 2022. But he only follows the line and implements the decisions taken by the Guide. And the Revolutionary Guards, in foreign policy, have very significant room for maneuver. We saw this clearly under the presidency of Hassan Rouhani, during which they followed a policy sometimes contrary to the positions of the elected president. The disappearance of Raïssi will therefore in no way call into question the rapprochement with Russia and China, the tougher approach to nuclear power or the confrontation with the United States and Israel.
Saudi Arabia offered its condolences. Is this confirmation of a desire for détente between the two rival regional powers?
Iran has launched a regional policy of appeasement in its neighborhood, with the exception of Israel of course. This corresponded to an internal political necessity, due to the serious unrest that the country has been experiencing since 2022. This choice was well received by neighboring states, such as Saudi Arabia, which also need stability, particularly for their economic transition. . Pakistan, for example, declared a day of mourning after the death of Raisi, which may seem surprising. There is real concern in the region and a wish on the part of these states that Tehran continues this regional policy of appeasement. Given the shock wave of the war in Gaza, there should not be any further slippage.
Does the Tehran regime have a future?
It has been in place since 1979 and has successfully navigated numerous crises. But the base which supports him is increasingly restricted. The directions taken by the regime have only widened the gap with the population, particularly the measures targeting women. Even some inside the regime criticize these ultra-conservative positions. These choices could indeed contribute to further undermining the basis of the regime. But let us not forget that it has significant means of control, surveillance and repression. Major protest movements have been stifled. The Islamic regime came to power through a revolution. He knew how to learn from it so as not to suffer the same fate. It demonstrates real repressive intelligence, and cooperation with China also serves it from the point of view of digital surveillance and public space.
Today, given the capabilities of the security apparatus, it is difficult to see how the Iranians could get rid of this regime. On the other hand, the death of Khamenei could be much more interesting and open up space for opponents, especially since Raisi was tipped to be his successor…
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