“Hindus are in danger.” In the absence of a new political project, Narendra Modi is taking up an old antiphon of his party, the BJP, in the middle of the general elections. The head of government, who is aiming for a third term and is clearly lacking inspiration after ten years in power, is trying hard to make people believe that Muslims, around 200 million people out of 1.4 billion, want to seize power. power thanks to their demographic dynamics.
Unusually, the vote is organized over seven days, over the period from April 19 to June 1, between which the campaign is in full swing. On April 21, during a meeting in Rajasthan, the Hindu nationalist leader blamed all of India’s ills on “those who have more children” (the Muslims), who would only be ” infiltrators” to whom the Congress, the main opposition party, is preparing to give the keys to the country. This fantasy of the great replacement is based on figures provided by the Economic Advisory Council, placed under the Prime Minister.
Between 1950 and 2015, this body argues, the share of Hindus in the population would have decreased by 7 points, while that of Muslims would have jumped by more than 4 points. This “observation” results from an extrapolation of demographic statistics dating from 2011 and the said Council is careful not to point out that Muslims remain a very minority, at 14% of the population, compared to 80% for Hindus.
In truth, it would take “more than a thousand years” for Muslims to overtake Hindus if the birth rates of the two communities remained unchanged, calculates mathematician Dinesh Singh. But all scientific studies show it: the birth rate depends not on religion but on income and level of education. If there is still a fertility gap between Hindus and Muslims, it is because the latter are more affected by poverty.
Failing to be able to put forward an advantageous economic record, the far-right autocrat attacks the Congress Party daily, with lots of fake news: “If the Congress returns to power, it will remove their wedding necklace to Hindu women to give it to Muslims”; “The Congress wants to steal the quotas for civil service jobs reserved for low castes and untouchables and give them to Muslims”; “Congress calls for vote for jihad”… Modi goes so far as to accuse the party led by the Nehru-Gandhi family of having “received boatloads of illegal money” from India’s two richest businessmen , Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani. Inflated, while these oligarchs close to the Prime Minister finance the BJP with all their might and have made a fortune thanks to it.
“Modi is losing his footing…”
The nationalist leader’s untruths are so gross that his opponents list them on social networks under the hashtag #Modilies (“Modi lies”), created five years ago. “If Modi thinks he can make such blatant lies believed, it is because the BJP has a huge IT team to amplify them on the Internet, as well as the full support of television channels controlled by private companies,” notes Ram Puniyani , president of the Center for Studies on Society and Secularism, Bombay.
It must be said that the news is not very good for a given man who was unbeatable just a few weeks ago and today on the defensive. The abstention rate is increasing (between 33 and 38%), which some interpret as a sign of disaffection with the regime. “Modi is losing his footing, he is gripped by a form of hubris which could ultimately leave him very far from the 400 seats [sur 543] that he aims at the Chamber of Deputies”, estimates political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot, research director at Sciences Po.
The opposition feels its wings growing, especially since, on May 10, the Supreme Court released Arvind Kejriwal, head of the regional government of Delhi, the capital region, thrown in prison on the orders of Modi’s team just before the vote. Since then, the person concerned has continued to question the nationalist leader about the 75 years he will reach in 2025, an age which, in India, traditionally marks retirement. “Modi will soon no longer be Prime Minister”, wants to believe Rahul Gandhi, leader of the opposition. We may not be there yet, but his campaign machine seems to be running on empty.
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