We already nickname him “Frédéric le Grand”. For its size (1.98 meters) but also for its “war treasure”. By obtaining, this Tuesday, March 18, the green light from the Bundestag for limitless debt in the field of defense, Friedrich Merz can now spend without counting to rearm and modernize the country, and break with decades of budgetary rigor.
He is not yet a head of a government, he does not yet have a coalition, but Friedrich Merz is already promising to become the most expensive chancellor in history “. A historical boost achieved thanks to an agreement with a snatch obtained from his future Social Democratic allies (SPD), which he had dealt with “spending” during the campaign, but especially with environmentalists, qualified, them, “morons”. Merz has coined the Greens by promising them 100 billion euros for the climate and the registration in the Constitution The climate neutrality of Germany in 2045. He also had the ability to convene the outgoing federal assembly to obtain the necessary majority of two -thirds of the votes. With the next Bundestag, which is formed on March 25, Merz would have been a “naked king” with extremes that will hold a blocking minority for this constitutional reform. This parliamentary sleight of hand allows Merz to launch a special fund of 500 billion euros to modernize the infrastructures of the country neglected under the Merkel era.
The ex-guarantor of the discipline succeeds above all the feat of removing the sacrosanct “brake on debt” for armament expenses. Faced with the Russian threat and at the end of military protection of the United States, Germany can no longer shirk its responsibilities, continuing to take refuge behind Washington and Paris with its “checkbook diplomacy”. The most populous and first economy country in Europe, it must ensure leadership, estimates the future Chancellor, who wants to give himself the means of his ambitions. He will be able to buy tank, drones or fighter planes, building barracks, recruiting soldiers for the Bundeswehr (army). “Whatever it costs,” he said. Experts quarrel with more than 1000 billion investment needs in the army (twice the German federal budget) so that Germany is “capable of conducting a war”, according to the expression of Boris Pistorius, the current (and probable future) Social Democratic Minister of Defense.
The bet is not without risk
The invoice will be raised. This Tuesday vote could increase the debt by more than 1500 billion in the next twelve years (one investment plan on three legislatures). Germany should nevertheless remain in the average of the euro area of debt from 60 % to 90 % of GDP, far behind its French neighbor who already exceeds 110 %. “Germany is still margin,” tempers the Berlin Economic Research Institute (DIW).
The bet is not without risk. Friedrich Merz will be four years old to convince the voters of the merits of his 180 ° political reversal. For the moment, it has the support of the population. Economic circles are satisfied with this start, when Germany has just suffered two years of recession. European partners, the scholarship, rating agencies and even NGOs salute its massive investment plan.
But the far right Prorusse, which aims at the Chancellery in 2029 and will double the number of its deputies on the benches of the Bundestag, will not fail to campaign on the theme of “lie” and “betrayal”.