The European elections should not be synonymous with major upheavals in Germany, compared to the vote five years ago. It is already the post-campaign period which occupies minds with the future of the outgoing president of the European Commission, candidate to succeed her, the German Ursula von der Leyen.
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With our correspondent in Berlin, Pascal Thibault
The Christian Democrats will once again be the big winners in this European election. CDU and CSU will send the strongest contingent of the conservative EPP group to Brussels with Italy. Polls credit the German right with around 30% of the vote. A good basis for regaining power in 15 months in Berlin.
A latest study gives three parties ex aequo at 14%. The much-feared breakthrough of the far-right AfD party, 23% at the start of the year, will remain modest. Chancellor Scholz’s SPD maintains its mediocre result of five years ago. The German Greens, who achieved a historic score in 2019, are threatened this evening by a significant setback which will reduce the weight of the environmentalist group in the European Parliament. The ruling coalition is only expected to win around a third of the votes this Sunday evening. A severe sanction.
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What future for Ursula von der Leyen?
Interest in this election is greater than five years ago and experts are once again counting on participation above 60%, undoubtedly above the European average. For the first time, 16-18 year olds will participate in this vote.
The future of Ursula von der Leyen, minister for 14 years under Angela Merkel, is closely followed in her country where the President of the Commission campaigned extensively. Her popularity in Germany remains limited, but she enjoys the support of her party and of Chancellor Scholz for a second term. If it were to fail, an environmentalist would be appointed commissioner in Brussels, as provided for in the coalition contract between SPD, Greens and Liberals.
Also see2024 European election results