Russian and American officials will try, from Monday, January 10, to defuse the major crisis that has arisen when Russia has massed tens of thousands of soldiers on the Ukrainian border. The Ukrainians, on the front line, are largely absent from these summit negotiations, while if the talks fail they could suffer the first consequences.
With our correspondent in Kiev, Stephane Siohan
All eyes will be on Geneva, where this Monday January 10 begins high tension talks between Russian and American officials. The two countries will try to defuse the major crisis that has arisen between the Kremlin and the West, as Russia has massed tens of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border and Moscow asks the United States to renegotiate it. security architecture in Eastern Europe, by freezing by treaty any future extension of NATO, which would amount to creating new spheres of influence in Europe.
Ukrainians and the European Union out of the game
At the forefront of this crisis, there is therefore Ukraine, again threatened by the Russian army, after seven years of war in Donbass. But Russia has taken the initiative to keep both the Ukrainians and the European Union out of the discussion.
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Why ? Because the stake is twofold: it is a question of overhauling the security balances in Eastern Europe, and for Moscow, there is only one possible interlocutor, the United States of America. Moreover, since the start of the war in the Donbass in 2014, the Minsk process has stalled, and the Kremlin considers that Europeans and Ukrainians are no longer credible interlocutors.
However, Vladimir Poutine has set the bar very high: it is a question of freezing all Euro-Atlantic aspirations of Ukraine, but also of neutralizing NATO on the outskirts of Russia. Which is a matter that is played out between great powers.
Radio silence of President Volodymyr Zelensky
In Kiev, what do we expect from these meetings in Geneva? It is very difficult to know. For ten days, on the side of the Ukrainian executive, there has been radio silence. Certainly, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, hammers the Ukrainian doctrine, which can be summed up in one sentence: ” No agreement on Ukraine, without Ukraine. ”
But what is very disturbing is the total silence of Volodymyr Zelensky. In his New Year’s greetings, the president did not once mention the ongoing tensions. As a result, the Ukrainians are completely in the dark.
Is the risk of a major war real? What is the state’s strategy to deal with it? Should we already mobilize? The day after the Christmas holidays, we perceive a lot of incomprehension and fatalism. Truth be told, even with limited room for maneuver, the Zelensky government is not up to the stakes, and if negotiations fail, the Ukrainians risk being left to their own devices and to the Kremlin’s intentions. .
Discussions closely followed by the Baltic States and Poland
No sign of de-escalation from Russia, Lithuanian deputy foreign minister said after NATO meeting, reports our correspondent in Vilnius, Marielle Vitureau. Knowing that Russia never accepted the exit of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia from its orbit 30 years ago, the three countries still fear for their safety, both on their border with Russia, as well as ‘with Belarus. The two countries are fully integrated from a military point of view. The Baltic commitment to democracy for countries that Moscow wants to keep in its sphere of influence also makes them vulnerable.
There is therefore only one answer: strengthen deterrence and collective means of defense. To go further, the three Defense Ministers have agreed to proceed with the joint acquisition of a defense missile system.
Support for Ukraine is also essential, in particular within the framework of the Eastern Partnership of the European Union. But Lithuanian leaders who have made recent trips to Kiev are even determined to provide him with lethal weapons in his defense.
Warsaw wants more inclusive talks
In Poland too, which is very suspicious of Russia, the Geneva talks will be closely scrutinized. Warsaw has said it several times: we must respond in a coordinated manner to Moscow. On Friday, Polish Foreign Minister called for maintaining NATO unity and reacting to Russian actions, explains our correspondent in Warsaw, Sarah Bakaloglou. Zbigniew Rau also made a point of stressing that the appropriate place for discussions on security in Europe was the OSCE, of which “ all members are countries affected by the current situation ”, Including Ukraine. The OSCE has been chaired by Poland since January 1.
This is undoubtedly a sign of Warsaw’s desire for these discussions to take place in an inclusive manner and within a multilateral framework. The situation in Ukraine is being closely watched by Warsaw, which sees Russia as a threat: Poland is pushing in particular for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, which is to link Russia to Germany, to be abandoned, warning against a too much dependence on Moscow and underlining the risks for Ukraine’s security and the destabilization of NATO’s eastern flank.
In any case, on Friday, the American charge d’affaires in Warsaw was reassuring: the United States does not plan to withdraw American soldiers from Eastern European countries, he assured, reaffirming the country’s ties with its NATO allies.