May 1 was the scene of a new episode in the war of the left in France. Raphaël Glucksmann had to be exfiltrated from the parade in which he was participating in Saint-Étienne after being attacked by demonstrators. “ Aggressors remotely controlled by rebels », denounced the head of the PS-Place publique list in the European elections. “ Lies “, replies La France insoumise, while the action was claimed by the Young Communists, even if LFI activists were seen there. This incident is in any case the sign of a campaign which is moving more and more to the left.
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Since May 1st, arrests and imprecations have multiplied in the media and on social networks between the different parties of the ex-Nupes. But beyondSaint-Étienne incident, it is Raphaël Glucksmann’s progression in voting intentions – currently between 13 and 14% – which is fueling the attacks targeting him, his rebellious and environmentalist rivals capping between 6 and 8%. The PS-Public Square alliance that he represents sees a shift: exit the radicalism of the rebels and the strong return of social democracy.
The socialists particularly want as proof the LFI’s decision to focus its European campaign on the situation in Gaza. A way according to them to make people forget the difficulties of the list led by Manon Aubry, but also to play up the division of French society.
Read alsoEuropeans: Gaza, a persistent campaign theme that agitates the left
LFI assumes the divide
The rebels do not deny that the campaign is not easy and that they would obviously prefer their list to be better placed, while believing they see encouraging signals on the ground. But what’s really interesting is how they position themselves on the issue of “division.”
Paul Vannier, LFI deputy and in charge of the elections, explains that the strategy of his movement is precisely conflictuality: subjects are identified to “grab” voters, whether it is Gaza at the moment, of the question of private school a few weeks ago, or during the pension reform. The objective is to create a floor, minimum, increasingly higher electorate.
And this is what the polls on the 2027 presidential election seem to confirm, where Jean-Luc Mélenchon is tested at around 13%. However, the rebellious leader has never been so high three years before a presidential election. LFI is therefore betting on winning over new voters who have previously been abstainers and estimates that in 2027 the electorate of the moderate left will in any case always choose the best placed, namely Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Except that among the rest of the left, we believe that, on the contrary, LFI and its leader are becoming a pushback.
Read alsoEuropean elections: rebellious France wants to mobilize on the conflict in Gaza, whatever the cost
Looking towards 2027
The presidential election is already on everyone’s minds even if socialists and ecologists deny it, saying they only want to talk about Europe. For the PS, a good score could change everything, because it would be around the socialists that the left project would then have to be rebuilt.
But environmentalist MEP David Cormand, number 2 on the list led by Marie Toussaint, believes that whatever the results on June 9, “ it will not change anything in the balance of power on the left: LFI and us, we will say that it does not count. » He also judges that “ the Glucksmann vote [aux européennes]it’s a respite that left-wing voters and certain Macronists are granting, it’s not easy, but it doesn’t bode well for the future.. »
Everyone therefore intends to remain in their positions and the war of the left will continue to rage, at least in appearance. Because behind the scenes, all parties agree, we will still have to discuss the strategy for 2027: single candidacy or not, primary or not or quite simply separate paths.
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