There would hardly be any new security threats to Finland if a civil war were to break out in Russia, say Jukka Kopra and Tytti Tuppurainen, chairmen of the defense and foreign affairs committees of the parliament.
Finland would hardly face new security threats if unrest or even civil war broke out in Russia, the chairmen of the defense and foreign affairs committee of the parliament assessed in an interview with .
If the Russian regime were to collapse, resources would have to be allocated to the country’s internal problems. At that time, the risks of hybrid influence on Finland would be reduced, says the chairman of the parliament’s defense committee Jukka Kopra (collect.).
This is what happened when Russia invaded Ukraine. According to Kopra, cyber and hybrid influence on Finland practically stopped completely.
– Hybrid influence is like teasing in stable times, for which there is no time when things are messed up in one’s own country, Kopra characterizes.
One consequence of a possible civil war could be the escape of migrant workers to neighboring countries, such as Finland. But unlike hybrid influence, according to Kopra, migration would not be mechanized.
– It’s sad to say, but sending refugees as a hybrid influence is a normal activity. In an exceptional situation, where there are problems of their own, I could imagine that there is not enough time for such a thing.
Editor-in-chief of a Russian opposition newspaper Ilya Kosygin predicts in an interview with that Russia will drift into civil war during the year 2024.
The civil war would be the combination of many factors – the Russian war of aggression, the country’s movement and the after-waves of the Wagner forces’ rebellion – which, according to Kosygin, have led to the division of Russian society in recent times.
For Finland, the unrest in Russian society is in itself a slight risk. According to Kopra’s assessment, a possible civil war would hardly lead to soldiers targeting Finland with military operations without the president’s order.
From the outside, it is difficult to assess what is actually happening in Russia
The chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee Tytti Tuppurainen (sd.), a civil war would hardly change the situation in Finland radically. Finland has already been prepared for security threats from Russia during the last term of office: it was decided, among other things, to build a fence on the eastern border, Finland became a member of the defense alliance NATO, and the entry of people coming to Finland from Russia was tightened.
There is less and less information about the real state of Russian society as critical media are driven out of the country, Tuppurainen says.
The situation must be monitored, because it is difficult to assess from the outside what is really happening in Russia, he continues. Hardly even Putin’s administration is fully aware of the development of public opinion and society, Tuppurainen reflects.
– Authoritarian systems are often more fragile than the hard shell suggests. That is why Finland also needs to be prepared for different scenarios.
In addition to Finland, many other countries are now following the confusing situation after Midsummer. No one really knows what will happen next. The civil war predictions are completely justified, even though there are no estimates of the schedule, Kopra sums up.
– It is clear that Putin’s administration is in crisis.