The outgoing deputy of the Somme François Ruffin came in second place in the first round of the early legislative elections. Qualified for the second round against the RN, what result can he hope for?
Unfavorable ballot for François Ruffin. “We are not here to cry, we are going to fight for the six days we have left” he indicated on the evening of the first round on BFMTV. Far from being resigned, the outgoing deputy of the Somme came in second place in the 1st constituency of the department during the first round of the early legislative elections. With 33% of the votes, he finished far behind the RN candidate, Nathalie Ribeiro Billet (40%), but ahead of Albane Branlant, who represented the presidential majority (22%).
However, the latter announced her withdrawal “in the face of the risk of the National Rally. I make a difference between political adversaries and the enemies of the Republic” she declared, respecting the instructions given by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Sunday evening. In total, 221 candidates withdrew according to Le Monde’s calculations. In the Somme, it will therefore be a duel between François Ruffin and the RN candidate. The candidate invested by the New Popular Front should still benefit from the transfer of votes from the candidate of the presidential majority, it remains to be seen whether this contribution will be sufficient to overtake the Le Pen party and win a seat in the National Assembly. As a reminder, François Ruffin was one of the first to have called for the creation of the New Popular Front on the evening of the European elections. Below, a first projection of the new National Assembly according to the pollster Ipsos Talan.
What are François Ruffin’s chances of being elected in the second round?
In the 1st constituency of the Somme, François Ruffin is in an unfavorable ballot against the National Rally. Reelected in 2017 with 61% of the votes in his constituency, François Ruffin is now facing an ever stronger RN, particularly in the Somme. On the other hand, the former journalist and founder of Fakir should be able to rely on the transfer of votes. With the candidate of the presidential majority having withdrawn, no less than 22% of the votes will have to be redistributed during the second round.
Votes that should go, for the majority of them, to François Ruffin. Indeed, the leaders of the two political groups, Ensemble pour la majeur and Le Nouveau Front populaire pour la gauche, have for the most part called on their candidates who came in 3rd position to withdraw in order to block the National Rally and give the maximum number of votes to the so-called “republican” candidate. This is what should happen with François Ruffin. If he does not appear in a position of strength at the end of the first round, he still has every chance of running for a new term in the Assembly.
And François Ruffin has already expressed some wishes in the event of a positive result for the New Popular Front in this legislative election. He did not hesitate to say he was ready to become Prime Minister: “If ever there is a consensus that should result in a name, I am ready to take the place that we want to transform people’s lives” on France Bleu Picardie. The one who is part of Picardy Stand Up! also seems tempted by the position of Minister of Sports: “If ever in the history of our country, whatever position I may occupy, if it is at Matignon as Prime Minister, why not. But if it is as Minister of Sports and I manage to provide sport for all, for all the children of our country, I will be proud of it,” he added.
What result for François Ruffin in the legislative elections?
His first objective is above all to be re-elected in his constituency, which goes from Abbeville to Amiens. On the plateau of France 3 Picardyduring a debate with his opponents, François Ruffin detailed his program if he were re-elected. He is particularly in favor of indexing wages to inflation: if prices increase by a certain percentage, wages increase by the same amount. He also wants to act to consolidate jobs: “the big problem today is that we have transformed jobs into “piece jobs”, that is to say that we have reduced the share of permanent contracts in employment by five points. Why? Because there has been an explosion in the number of self-employed people. However, jobs must provide status and income,” he argued. He also wants to redirect public aid for businesses to “very small businesses/SMEs and industry”. He also says he is against selective and targeted immigration in certain sectors, but not the idea of a border.
In 2022, François Ruffin, who was attached to NUPES at the time, was easily re-elected with more than 61% of the votes in the second round against the RN candidate, Nathalie Ribeiro-Billet. He had won 40.09% in the first round. This result represented an increase compared to 2017, when the MP had won 55.97% of the votes in the second round and only 24.32% in the first round. While he can therefore be seen as a contender for victory in the next election, the political context has changed a lot in two years. The RN came out on top with 41% in Abbeville and 24.80% in Amiens in the European elections of June 9 and continues to progress, as evidenced by its score in the first round of the 2024 legislative elections.
Ruffin more popular than Mélenchon?
He also considered that Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who was also mentioned as a potential Prime Minister, was “right to step back” during the legislative campaign because his name arouses “concern” among voters. For his part, the rebellious leader believes in an interview with Figaro on June 20 that “François Ruffin chose to break with him, and not the other way around”. The former deputy, like the leadership of the movement, had also been accused by François Ruffin of having “purged” historical figures of the party such as Alexis Corbière, Raquel Garrido or Danielle Simonnet. He then defended himself: “Where is the ‘purge’ that is attributed to me? But I do not deserve his hurtful vindictiveness. Not sure that it serves his ambitions”. According to the Elabe barometer for The echoespublished on Thursday, June 13, François Ruffin is the third favorite left-wing political figure of the French after Raphaël Glucksmann and François Hollande. He has a 24% positive image against 36% negative, surpassing Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 16% positive against 70% negative.