“Europe is deadly,” warned Emmanuel Macron in April, in an attempt to revive his camp before the European elections. Now, after the rout of his party against the National Rally (RN) and its decision to dissolve the National Assembly, it is also French influence in the EU which is threatened with disappearance.
The presidential party first saw its influence diminish in the European Parliament. Until now leader of the Liberal group (Renew), member of the majority coalition in Strasbourg, he only has 13 seats (compared to 30 for the RN). In decline, this formation remains the third in number of MEPs, but could be overtaken by ECR, that of the Italian Giorgia Meloni, who is looking for new radical right allies.
In this unfavorable context, the head of state, who has always sought to impose his tempo in Brussels, risks having more difficulty making his voice heard. First test, the leaders of the Twenty-Seven must meet on June 17 to discuss the distribution of “top jobs”: the presidency of the European Commission, that of the European Council, and the post of high representative for foreign affairs. If Emmanuel Macron had imposed the German Ursula von der Leyen at the head of the Commission five years ago, the discussions could this time take place without him, or almost, while awaiting the result of the legislative elections. “France’s position was eagerly awaited in these negotiations: it will be weakened,” sighs Jean-Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert-Schuman Foundation. Then will come the discussions for the positions of European commissioners. In the event of cohabitation with the RN, it could be more difficult for the president to once again land a super portfolio of the scale of that currently occupied by Thierry Breton, at the Internal Market.
Emmanuel Macron should indeed see his weight diminish within the European Council, where strategic questions are debated. “Even if the president will continue to play an important role, his political credibility is affected and the balance could be upset in this body,” notes Thierry Chopin, of the Jacques-Delors Institute. If he wins on July 7, representatives of the RN would participate in councils of European ministers, the discussions of which would be complicated. Already, Paris’ commitments in favor of aid to Ukraine or enlargement are questionable. Enough to further torpedo the French aura.