In his speech of February 27 on the main lines of his foreign policy towards the continent, Emmanuel Macron had hammered home: “Africa has become a land of competition”. On the military level, the Head of State assumed that he wanted to gradually let go of the ballast, announcing a “visible reduction” in French troops on the spot. But with a calculated rhythm – “in the coming months” – and a method – “a new model of military partnership” – which he summed up as follows: “Tomorrow, our presence will be part of bases, schools, academies which will be co-managed” with our African partners.
The staff cards are reshuffled
After the forced withdrawal from Mali in August 2022, and from Burkina Faso, which took place a few days before this speech, under pressure from two military juntas, the French army intended to regain control of its schedule. She didn’t have time. Since July 26, the coup d’etat in Niger has been reshuffling the military cards: the putschists are demanding the immediate departure of the 1,500 French soldiers stationed mainly at Niamey airport, while Paris, which refuses to release President Mohamed Bazoum, currently in detention, does not intend to give in to the ultimatum, even if discussions began this week. In Gabon, where President Ali Bongo was overthrown on August 30, the government is more fluid. “There are doubts about the sincerity of the elections in this country…”, acknowledged Sébastien Lecornu, the Minister for the Armed Forces, in an interview with the Figaro. The activities of our 370 soldiers were therefore “suspended there until the political situation clarified”.
Former minister of Jacques Chirac and author in 2019 of a report on the revival of the French economic presence in Africa, Hervé Gaymard wonders today about the need for France to preserve these bases: “They exist because Africans wanted them. If they don’t want them anymore, let’s take note. Neither England nor Germany have such facilities and live it very well. This is a Gaullist speaking to you: on these questions, you have to be pragmatic. It is not because it will close bases that France will be less radiant and powerful.”
A falling market share on the continent
Is she even still? In commercial matters, its loss of momentum is unequivocal. According to Coface, France’s market share on the continent as a whole has more than halved in twenty years, going from 10.6% in 2002 to 4.4% in 2021, when those of China (18.8%), India (5.6%) and Turkey (3.2%) continued to grow. French banks, for example, have literally deserted the field. In 2018, BPCE left Cameroon, Madagascar and Congo. The following year, BNP Paribas took off from Gabon, Burkina Faso and Guinea. Finally, last June, Société Générale announced its departure from the latter country, as well as from Congo, Chad and Mauritania.
These “refocusing” operations, as the press releases boast, are always adorned with eminent strategic or financial reflections. But for the economist Pascal Lorot, president of the Institut Choiseul and author of Clash of sovereignties (Débats publics editions), published in July, the main reason for these withdrawals is often legal: “France has equipped itself with such a strict anti-corruption arsenal that it weighs on our competitiveness and our ability to respond to calls for tenders. However, the very large French companies, those which are listed in particular, have an enormous aversion to risk and today prefer to give up these markets.”
Bribes and “facilitation fees”
At the headquarters of this French public works champion, a manager familiar with these files describes the different “methods” for winning a contract. All contrary to the Sapin 2 law, passed in 2016… “First option: the State requires you to go through a consultant who signs on your behalf and demands bribes from you. Second scenario: at the end of the construction site, so far cloudless, you receive a colossal tax adjustment which eats into your entire margin. The only way out is to call on an intermediary who will negotiate for you with the local administration, in return for a mountain of cash. way, these are the “facilitation fees”. In short, various envelopes that you are obliged to pay to speed up customs clearance procedures for material blocked in the ports. Without your gear, you cannot start… The United States and the United Kingdom authorize their companies to pay these facilitation fees. France, no!”
Italy in ambush
Commissioner of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, the Togolese economist Kako Nubukpo suggests that French companies sweep in front of their doors: “They can completely compete with those of emerging countries, or elsewhere. condition of identifying their own comparative advantages. And of recording the end of the economy of empire.” A well-founded criticism, admits the former Africa boss of a French multinational: “The scheme of opening a simple branch, piloted from Paris, without paying tax locally, and not a company anchored in the country, has long been within the CAC 40. He lived. The awakening, for some, is painful.”
More agile than our mastodons, “the Italian or German ETIs [NDLR : entreprises de taille intermédiaire, entre 250 et 5 000 salariés] are overtaking us, observes Pascal Lorot. Since the coming to power of Giorgia Meloni, Italy has even sought to become Europe’s privileged interlocutor on the continent.” On November 5 and 6, in Rome, an Italy-Africa summit will carry this ambition.
The advantage of a common language
It is therefore difficult to reduce the weakening of France in its former colonies to the mere emergence of two scarecrows: Russia and its Wagner militia on the military level, and China and its enslaved workers on the economic level. “We no longer know how to defend our interests, stings a businessman from the Ile-de-France whose project in Niger is now at a standstill. We wave symbols, like this law to return works of art to Africa. Street people don’t care, they don’t go to the museum… When the Turks build the Radisson, a 5-star hotel, in Niamey, there, on the other hand, it’s a source of pride for Nigeriens. it’s concrete.”
For Denis Cogneau, professor at the Paris School of Economics, France nevertheless retains a major asset in this “competition” theorized by the Elysée: “All the models show that countries that speak the same language trade more with each other , he recalls. We have a past, common institutions. There will inevitably remain a link. That it will diminish over time is normal. ” Until when ? It’s midnight – minus one -, Doctor Schweitzer.