The last few weeks have brought one news after another about how complicated Finland’s and especially Sweden’s NATO path has become in Turkey.
Hungary has received less attention. Apart from Turkey, it is the only one of the 30 NATO countries whose membership is still not ratified.
Back in November, the Finnish foreign policy leadership was said to have signaled that Hungary would now move forward in Hungary at the beginning of February, i.e. these days.
At the moment, it seems that the spring session of the Parliament would start on February 27. However, the date has not been officially confirmed.
– Hungary has announced that the parliament would start processing Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO memberships at the beginning of the spring session. It is possible that it will start at that time, says the Finnish ambassador to Hungary Pertti Anttinen.
Anttinen says that he believes that Hungary will eventually ratify Finland’s membership and that he hopes that it will happen this spring.
– Hungary has not presented any conditions for ratification. But there are always uncertainties in political processes, he adds.
Opposition politician Ágnes Vadai: Orban may delay the issue for a long time
The Hungarian opposition has already wanted to bring NATO ratifications to parliament twice, but the ruling party Fidesz and the prime minister To Viktor Orbán it has not agreed.
Opposition politician Ágnes Vadai assessed in an interview with that it is still unclear whether the ratification process will even start at the end of February.
– It is possible that there will be more delays, he says.
Vadai, who represents the Democratic Coalition party, says that there should be no obstacles to ratification, and that the acceptance of Finland and Sweden into the military alliance as quickly as possible would also be important for Hungary’s own security.
– Hungary is located on NATO’s eastern border. Because of Russia’s war of aggression, NATO must be strengthened. The joining of Finland and Sweden would be in Hungary’s interest, Vadai says.
The uncertainty is created by the fact that Orbán has not openly stated what is causing the rattling in the ratifications.
It has been speculated that there are several reasons behind this.
Orbán’s relations with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Turkish President to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are known to be close. According to Vadai, Orbán may be willing to do a favor especially for Turkey, which is blocking the ratification of Sweden’s membership.
It is also possible that Orbán wants to somehow extort more EU subsidies, now that Sweden is the EU presidency, Vadai thinks.
– But the Hungarian government is not openly behind any demand. This dancing in the ratification process is harmful to both Hungary’s reputation and security, he says.
“Hungary wants to pay the pot in kind to Finland”
Docent of political science familiar with Hungary Heino Nyyssönen reminds that Hungary has been playing a continuous game with the EU subsidies it has received. Hungary previously blocked the EU’s financial aid to the war-torn Ukraine until it could release its own frozen EU aid. Hungary promised to carry out the required rule of law reforms.
– My own interpretation of the delay in ratification is that Hungary wants to pay in full after Finland’s demands for the rule of law have been put forward, Nyyssönen says.
According to Nyyssönen, no compromises should be made in the rule of law issue to please Hungary.
– According to the latest study by Transparency International, which assesses corruption, Hungary is now the most corrupt country in the EU. It overtook Bulgaria. This should not be forgotten, he says.
According to him, there has been no public speculation in Hungary about the separation of the Finnish and Swedish processes. Recently, Turkey has repeatedly hinted that Finland’s application could receive a more favorable treatment than Sweden’s.
However, the Nordic countries’ NATO applications were on display when the Turkish foreign minister visited Budapest recently.
Hungarian Foreign Minister belonging to Orban’s Fidesz party Péter Szijjártó made comments from Sweden sympathetic to Turkey.
– It is stupid to say that burning the Koran is freedom of speech. Maybe Sweden should act a little more cautiously if it wants to win over Turkey to its side, the Hungarian foreign minister said.
Nyyssönen thinks that the Koran uproar might in the eyes of the Hungarian management raise Finnish stocks somewhat.
– The Hungarian government is conservative. You can think that it respects the Koran in itself, even if it is based on Christianity itself. Even in Finland, the Koran has not been burned, Nyyssönen estimates.
According to Nyyssönen, it is good to remember that Turkey is a very important country for Hungary, and one of the three pillars of the country’s foreign policy. According to him, the others are Russia and Germany.
“Orban balances between the West and Russia”
A researcher who has followed Hungary for a long time also bets that Hungary will eventually accept Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership.
– In some comments, it has been estimated that Orbán would pledge ratifications because he expects Russia to win the war in Ukraine. I don’t think this is true, Nyyssönen says.
According to him, Orbán rather balances between Russia, Turkey and the EU.
– This balancing act loses its meaning if Hungary does not ratify the memberships, he says.
Finland’s ambassador to Hungary, Pertti Anttinen, does not want to assess whether the heated debate about Sweden in Turkey has affected Hungary’s schedule. According to him, the processing of Swedish and Finnish applications at different times has not been delayed in Hungary.
– We keep the issue up all the time, both at official level and in political meetings. We emphasize the importance of the issue both for the applicants and for NATO, says Anttinen.