After forecasts of salary increases of 3.63% in 2024, already down compared to 4.05% in 2023, the results of the survey for 2025 from the consulting firm People Base CBM announce a clear slowdown: companies are forecasting an average overall salary increase of only 2.43% for next year. The firm is even more cautious than the companies, with an average estimate of 2.15%, confirming the forecasts for the start of the school year from another recruitment firm.
The return to a more stable context
The survey was carried out among 582 companies representing more than 650,000 employees. According to the firm, “this moderation marks a break after three years of significant increases”, linked on the one hand “to post-pandemic catch-ups” and on the other hand to inflation, “exacerbated by geopolitical and economic tensions”, notably the war in Ukraine.
“It seems that the tensions observed during the 2021, 2022 and 2023 financial years (war in Ukraine, inflation, pressure from trade union organizations, recruitment difficulties, employee departures, changes in employee expectations, etc.) are tending to fade away” , notes the cabinet in its report.
This more stable context but also marked by “rather ‘gloomy’ political and economic prospects for the coming months” should continue to push companies to be cautious, with the consequence of a continued decline in increases. This is why the People Base CBM firm envisages salary developments even lower than those estimated by companies: “This conservative estimate takes into account economic uncertainties and the need for many companies to maintain strict control over their costs in the face of to forecasts of an economic slowdown”, indicate the authors of the study.
Increasingly individualized increases
The adjusted average rate of salary increases for 2025 (adjusted by excluding the extremes, i.e. companies freezing salaries or those planning the highest increases), is 2.49%, a little more than the overall average rate. This the consulting firm explains by the presence in a greater number, in the panel, of companies planning up to 4% increase, compared to that of companies planning a salary freeze. In 2024, however, the best forecasts reached a salary increase of up to 9%, so much more.
The People Base CBM study also shows that the trend is towards individualized salary increases, rather than general ones. In 2025, 98.1% of companies are planning individualized salary increases, while only just over half of them are planning general increases. Around half of companies also choose to differentiate increases according to the hierarchical level of employees.
Finally, only 49% of companies in the panel are subject “to salary obligations such as sector agreements and automatic increases”, compared to 67% in 2023, reflecting “a context where companies have increased flexibility”.