It is a note from the French intelligence services which says it: some 80,000 people are currently waiting, in North Africa, to be able to cross the Mediterranean. The arrival of 7,000 migrants in twenty-four hours in Lampedusa in mid-September, spectacular as it was, is therefore in no way the culmination of a crisis which would soon belong to the past – since the beginning of year, almost 124,000 migrants arrived on Italian shores, compared to 65,500 during the same period last year. It is only an episode feeding into a soap opera which has pursued Emmanuel Macron since day one and will continue to disturb him until the end. Because this president, a follower of rationality and control, sees with these questions all his fundamentals wavering on their basis: a State which struggles to show the effectiveness of its action, an opinion which gets carried away to the point of losing its Latin, its own camp which is divided like never before and proves that in this matter macronism does not exist, and even its dear Europe, propelled into the dock, which seeks to make its unity the only answer , but most often displays his selfishness.
Immigration, Emmanuel Macron’s dark issue because it reveals its ambiguities; the European elections in less than ten months, the last major election of his presidency… How to avoid the collision? Sunday evening on television, the Head of State set up the face-to-face with the extreme right, which began this fall, with Giorgia Meloni in the role of the repentant, at least in appearance – she made “a strong choice”, noted Emmanuel Macron on TF1 and France 2. In November 2022, when theOcean Viking docks in Toulon and causes tension between Paris and Rome (most of the 234 migrants who then landed in France are now in Germany, according to Place Beauvau), Gérald Darmanin points out the “unprofessional” attitude of the Italian authorities, and if he does it in these terms, it is because Emmanuel Macron suggested it to him. Today, the President of the Italian Council no longer speaks of a naval blockade as during the electoral campaign, and the Head of State considers that she must be helped as soon as she appeals to Europe.
But, before the electoral confrontation, we must strengthen the Union to chase away the sieve trial. The reform of the Asylum-Immigration Pact should make it possible, throughout the continent, to create buffer zones and therefore, after a rapid examination of the validity of the asylum request, to return without getting into the confusion of the famous OQTF (obligations to leave French territory), but it is now in the hands of the European Parliament and still divides the Twenty-Seven. Emmanuel Macron would also like Europe to make progress in its discussions with Great Britain, but a migration agreement is still far from being reached, especially since the Brussels Commission is reluctant to be conciliatory with London since Brexit.
The gap between words and results
The flaws from within are no less striking than the vulnerabilities from without. Be wary of your first impression, it’s always the best. Be wary of the first reactions, they are always the most sincere. In the hours following the sudden influx in Lampedusa, the French government displayed the extent of its sensitivities, from Catherine Colonna to Clément Beaune. Gérald Darmanin did not immediately succeed in imposing his distinction between migrants (a polite way of speaking about irregulars) and refugees (having the right to request an asylum application) in the minds of his colleagues, while what can be said of that of French ? Macronie does not know how to speak with one voice on immigration, because, on this subject more than on any other, she does not think the same. The great leader, faced with the demands of reality, always believes in the performative words of a president. “We must significantly reduce immigration, starting with illegal immigration. We have an obligation to achieve results,” he said in Point of August 24, but these remarks have only two consequences: to make those in his camp cough who find that he is moving decidedly too quickly (and not in the right direction); underline the gap between words and actions, words and feelings, only to reinforce doubts about the effectiveness of public action. According to Place Beauvau, there are now between 600,000 and 800,000 illegal immigrants on our territory.
In Saint-Denis, on August 30, his intervention was not the most expected, and now he found a way, seemingly out of nowhere, to make an impression. Thierry Beaudet, the president of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council, notes in a sentence that the text on immigration prepared by the government, if it results in a law, will be the 23rd of its kind. A clandestine angel passes by. It’s good to adapt to the situation, but at this point… Has the law become nothing more than a cover-up for the impotence of public authorities? The shadow of Gérard Collomb then hangs over the meeting. The first Minister of the Interior of the Macron presidency also had his law passed, under absurd conditions. “We are going to give up everything to the leftists again,” Aurore Bergé, who was not yet a minister, expressed emotion in the corridors of the Palais-Bourbon, alongside Christophe Castaner, who was still one. One evening, Gérard Collomb had threatened not to come to the session, tired of the attitude of some; one morning, he was totally tempted to throw in the towel. Because to be voted on by this majority, its text had to combine firmness and humanity, at the risk of rhyming with ineffectiveness, and in fact it was called into question and judged insufficient just a few months after being adopted – “a gloubi-boulga” , according to the formula of an actor of the time. Balance is certainly a virtue, balancing is certainly a fragility.
Have we forgotten it? The bill currently under discussion was initially conceived as a part of the orientation and programming law of the Ministry of the Interior (Lopmi) aimed at the modernization of law enforcement, and was intended to be security above all. The urgency was to lift certain protections to facilitate the departure of illegal immigrants and delinquents, to resolve disputes more quickly, not to regularize. Then the Darmanin text became Darmanin-Dussopt. It must have been an addition, it is only a sum of divisions. A pebble in the shoe of the executive, a stone in the garden of the majority.
“Darmanin must protect himself from LR, but also from Matignon”
To the two members of the government who carried the text, Elisabeth Borne did not pay tribute during the famous Tourcoing day, August 27, preferring to applaud absent ministers than those present. The bill tenses the entire government, the tension is palpable as rarely. After Gérald Darmanin, this Minister of the Interior who since July 2022 has published and assumed statistics establishing a link between delinquency and foreigners, accepted the Senate amendment from the Republicans replacing the AME, intended for foreigners in an irregular situation, with a “emergency” aid to the perimeter and much more restricted access conditions, one of his colleagues almost choked: “We are in favor of it? But who is it us? I didn’t hear that at Matignon. We take responsibility for the irresponsibility of the opposition.”
And then there is article 3, the one which provides for regularization of illegal immigrants in professions in tension, casus belli for the right, the left, the macronie, the extremes (have we forgotten anyone?). In front of an interlocutor before the holidays, the Prime Minister complained about her writing, judging it to be poorly put together. Follow his gaze. Gérald Darmanin knows he is waiting around the corner. “He must protect himself from the Republicans, but also from Matignon,” points out a parliamentary leader. Sunday evening, Emmanuel Macron wanted “an intelligent compromise”. The Minister of the Interior is ready to do a lot to move forward – “he will not kill his text for regularizations”, says a close friend – the time for concessions is approaching. “Imagine that there is no Immigration law, worries another minister. If the parties of the Republican arc are incapable of voting for one, it is a boulevard for those who will suggest that it It’s thanks to a law that everything will change.”