The Covid 19 pandemic is sometimes good, by making it difficult, on the eve of the presidential election, to assess public policies and implement the promises made in 2017. The 2021 assessment of immigration and ‘asylum, presented this Thursday by the Ministry of the Interior, is a perfect example of this, as the subject is at the heart of many electoral debates. Complicated, for the opponents of Emmanuel Macron, to attack the outgoing president on his inability to control migratory flows when the latter are greatly reduced due to the health crisis. Complex to reproach him for not further removing people in an irregular situation when the absence of international flights prevents the implementation of deportations to the border. However, some elements show that the government is far from having achieved its goal on several points which it had nevertheless made the cornerstone of its action.
Overall, the statistical report carried out by the Directorate General for Foreigners in France shows a year 2021 still strongly upset by the effects of the pandemic. The most visible element is the still very significant drop in short-stay visa applications compared to 2020, which was already a gloomy year (-10.6%). Neither tourists nor visitors have returned in recent months. As a result, France only issues a little over 500,000 visas of this type compared to more than 3.5 million before the crisis. Same impression of control over asylum applications, which are starting to progress again but remain at a much lower level than in 2019, with 104,577 first applications, compared to 138,420 at the time.
Congested accommodation capacities
A more detailed examination of the figures shows, however, that the record of Emmanuel Macron and Gérald Darmanin, his Minister of the Interior, is less glorious than it seems. And that the pandemic does not explain everything. Thus, in terms of asylum applications, the figures remain at levels high enough to overwhelm accommodation capacities and contribute to the appearance of informal settlements in most major cities in France, leading to an endless cycle of dismantling and reconstruction. And if the Ofpra has improved its processing times, these are, when combined with the examination of the appeal by the National Court for the Right to Asylum, still very far from the famous objective of six months for a decision, already fixed under the presidency of François Hollande and taken up by Emmanuel Macron but never reached.
Another point on which the trend does not change: the share of “secondary” Dublin requests, which remains very high. 30% of people who file an application in France have already done so in another European country from which they have been rejected. A “tourism” of asylum, according to the expression in vogue in Beauvau, which continues despite repeated calls from the Head of State to reform the Dublin regulations. Again on Wednesday, during his address to the European Parliament, he presented this reform as one of the key ambitions of the French presidency of the European Union.
On January 19, in the European Parliament, Emmanuel Macron in the European Parliament, pleaded for a reform of the Schengen system and the Dublin regulation.
afp.com/BERTRAND GUAY
Another example of failure is the question of deportation of people in an irregular situation. Since 2017, the Head of State and his successive Interior Ministers have continued to promise an increase in deportations to the border, via increased pressure on countries of origin reluctant to issue permits. pass consular. The appointment of a special ambassador in charge of this issue at the start of the five-year term has had no visible effects. More recently, France announced that it was cutting the issuance of visas for Algerian and Moroccan nationals by half and those for Tunisians by a third until these countries cooperate more on laissez-passer. A threat that has borne fruit with regard to Tunisia, much less with the other two countries. Morocco has also closed its borders almost permanently due to Covid. “There was a qualitative effect more than quantitative”, we modestly indicate place Beauvau. And to add: “The pressure continues”. New measures should not be ruled out in the coming weeks.
All countries combined, the number of removals to third countries (outside the European Union) amounts to 7,878, certainly an increase compared to 2020, but more than half lower compared to 2019 (15,748). The closing of the borders and the refusal of some deportees to submit to a Covid test which prevents their renewal conceals a real diplomatic failure. Hence the will, also displayed on Wednesday by Emmanuel Macron, to reform the Schengen regulations to limit irregular entries into European territory and ultimately French.
An almost inevitable rise in migratory flows
For the Head of State, there is all the more at stake as a slowdown in the epidemic and a resumption of international trade will almost inevitably lead to an increase in migratory flows. Already, in 2021, a tremor has been observed in terms of legal immigration through long-stay visas, whether for students or professionals, which have almost returned to their 2019 level. new phenomena, such as that of small boats at the Franco-British maritime border, where 52,000 attempted crossings, of which 28,000 were successful, have been recorded over the past twelve months. Phenomena that have very high visibility and a very strong impact on public opinion.
There is no doubt that, in the coming weeks, Emmanuel Macron’s opponents in the supreme magistracy will try to use these elements to show his inability to deal with this issue. With the risk that once again, the migration issue will be addressed with peremptory statements and false good ideas. The Head of State will find it easy to retort that the pandemic has slowed him down in his ambitions and that he will only be able to move forward in a European context.