“The brief”. This ugly Anglicism took on an unprecedented scale under the presidency of Emmanuel Macron. During informal exchanges with the press, ministerial advisers and directors of cabinet explain the content of such and such a government project. We’re talking technical here. This Wednesday, November 2, 2022, Gérald Darmanin is compelled to exercise in person, before participating in questions to the government in the Senate. The Minister of the Interior praises to journalists the merits of his bill on immigration, the main lines of which were revealed a few hours earlier in an interview given with Olivier Dussopt at the World. The tenant of Beauvau multiplies the calls from the foot to the right, ostensibly quotes, on several occasions, the amendments of the “deputy Eric Ciotti” accepted within the framework of the orientation and programming law of the Ministry of the Interior (Lopmi) . Two months later, nothing has changed. Gérald Darmanin, in addition to his informal discussions with parliamentarians, is to receive the new boss of the Republicans, his group president in the Assembly Olivier Marleix and the elected representative of Pas-de-Calais Pierre-Henri Dumont for a working meeting.
The ambitious minister would be wrong to economize, as he plays big in this business. This political issue is answered by an arithmetic puzzle. The presidential camp lacks allies to push through the reform. “Today there is no majority to vote for it,” confesses a pillar of the Renaissance group. Forgotten, the deal of the century concluded with LR on pensions. Political and ideological considerations unite here against the executive.
A model of “at the same time”
Immigration is an abrasive matter. Of those who resuscitate the right-left divide, so despised in Macronie. No one has forgotten the chaotic vote of the Collomb law in 2018, and its cohort of rebellious abstentions. The 2023 version is a compromise model between the left and right wings of Renaissance. Its title – bill “to control immigration, improve integration” – is an ode to “at the same time”. On the left, the creation of a residence permit for foreigners exercising a “job in tension”, easier access to the labor market for certain asylum seekers or a strengthening of sanctions against unscrupulous employers. On the right, a series of provisions aimed at facilitating the expulsion of delinquent foreigners, a simplification of the litigation of foreigners or a conditioning of the granting of a residence permit to the respect of the “principles of the Republic”.
Gérald Darmanin (ex-LR) and his counterpart at Work Olivier Dussopt (ex-PS) become ambassadors of the text in a number of well-established duettists. “The ‘work’ part of this text is the cement for the left wing of our majority”, admitted the second in December. A steered working group has been set up within Renaissance to tune the violins of the deputies. At its head: Stella Dupont, figure of the left wing, and Mathieu Lefèvre, former chief of staff of Darmanin at the Ministry of the Interior. The parliamentarians hear the services of the State, associations or ambassadors in order to build a common position. “The text is not soft because it is neither right nor left, defends the deputy of Val-de-Marne. It goes far on all subjects.”
Internally, it holds. “The text is a good first version”, greets the president of the commission of the Laws Sacha Houlié, resulting from the PS. This is where it gets complicated. Gérald Darmanin bets on LR voices to win the bet. He likes to recall that his text takes up proposals formulated by a report by Senator LR François-Noël Buffet. Doesn’t this project tighten the screw on renewals? Isn’t it a hymn to the value of work, cherished by LR?
LR still in the sights
The Darmanin strategy is as readable as a Marvel movie script. The examination of the text will begin in the Senate. The LR majority must beef up the text – for example by matching the “job in tension” residence permit with quotas -, find a compromise with the executive, and place the 62 LR deputies before their responsibilities. The latter, we pray in Macronie, will find it difficult to denounce their fellow senators by throwing their advances to the nettles.
Nothing is less sure. The LR deputies promise a frontal opposition. Officially, for ideological reasons. The text, too timid, would be a call for air to irregular immigration. He is criticized for not reducing legal immigration, the first source of clandestinity. “We know that this text aims to destabilize us, but it is unacceptable as it stands, thunders Eric Ciotti. The message on regularization erases all the positive. It is a text of balance, but this subject does not support the ‘at the same time’.” “There is nothing on social immigration”, abounds Olivier Marleix.
These reserves are also tactical. The Republicans, self-proclaimed “responsible opposition”, have dubbed the pension reform. To vote a few weeks later on a sovereign text would deprive them of political space, and would reduce them to the rank of government crutches. “If we vote for the pension reform, then the immigration law, we have nothing to do in the opposition, admits Pierre-Henri Dumont. We will then have the troubles of the majority without the advantages.”
strategic differences
The government is aware of this psychological blockage. Gérald Darmanin calls on his former camp to strengthen the text with its amendments, and takes malicious pleasure in insisting on its security aspect. “They will find it difficult to explain to their constituents to say no to a text which allows the deportation of 4,000 more offenders per year”, breathes a relative. But the right has an ace in its meager game. The “job in tension” residence permit, which it waves in red rag. Certainly, the device is very supervised. But the symbol is enough, confide in private several LR dignitaries. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne is monitoring the creation of this title like milk on the fire. In private, she says she is very attentive to the fact that it is not assimilated to a massive regularization operation, prohibitive for public opinion.
Convincing the right will be difficult. Elsewhere, it’s worse. The RN promises to scrap against the text. The far right wants to make parliamentary debate the confrontation of two chemically pure visions. “Emmanuel Macron sees immigration as a project, with economic opportunities. We see a danger in it, including economic”, theorizes Sébastien Chenu, vice-president RN of the Assembly. Be careful, however, not to get out of hand by authorizing racist or xenophobic outings on this issue. “We oppose the migration problem, not people,” Marine Le Pen reminded her troops at the end of 2022, behind closed doors at a group meeting, aware that the subject can be both a political opportunity and a trap. The left finally does not intend to make any gift to Gérald Darmanin, even if several parts of the text are in accordance with its DNA. “Instinctively, I would say that the whole left will vote against”, anticipates the boss of the PS Olivier Faure.
Here lies yet another difficulty. Strategic differences are emerging on the alliance to tie to snatch a majority. The Minister of the Interior and the right wing have their eyes fixed on LR, the only viable partner. But the left flank of Macronie wants to believe in a few benevolent abstentions from socialists or environmentalists. In his eyes, the balance of the text can bring together elected officials of different persuasions. A way to maintain the fantasy of overtaking, while Macronie is eyeing the right. Sacha Houlié thus intends to defend amendments compatible with the left.
The government has a few weeks to break its isolation. These attempts question our relationship to immigration. Does the subject lend itself to compromise or does it call for clear-cut and therefore divisive answers? Calm debates fall into the first category. The migration issue has escaped the camp of reason for several years. They project their anxieties there, they lend their opponents vile intentions: to open France to the four winds, or to close it down. In public opinion as well as in the Assembly.