Debates on the immigration bill are due to begin this Monday, December 11 in the National Assembly, but the text will be adjourned before any discussion if the environmentalists’ motion to reject is passed.
The big day has arrived for the immigration bill. The Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin must present his text in the hemicycle of the National Assembly this Monday, December 11 to open the fifteen days of debate on the very divisive bill. Unless the debates are prevented by the adoption of a motion to reject? This is a risk to take into account since after the presentation of the immigration bill, expected at 4 p.m., the deputies will have to vote on the motion of rejection defended by the elected environmentalist of Yvelines Benjamin Lucas. If all the votes of the left-wing deputies seem to have won the motion, it is the votes of the right and the extreme right which will be decisive. Is the motion to reject likely to pass?
A “tempting” motion for LR and the RN
The vote on the motion to reject is a possibility that is eyeing the Republicans, the right-wing party having itself tabled a motion. But only one text that can be voted on is the environmentalist motion which was drawn to try to cut short the debates on the immigration law. The Republicans therefore have the choice between supporting the rejection motion and confirming their opposition to the text in its revised version by the Law Commission or refusing to ally themselves with the left’s initiative to reiterate its firmness on the subject of immigration. .
The head of the Republicans, Eric Ciotti, is tempted by the adoption of the rejection motion which would put the version of the bill adopted by the Senate, and considerably toughened, back on the table. “Only the text that came out of the Senate, and only this one, suits us. The adoption of a motion of rejection would lead to a new debate on the text of the Senate” he recalled in The Parisian. Same position for the president of the LR group in the Assembly, Olivier Marleix, who mentioned a “fairly tempting solution” on South Radio. But if the leaders of the party seem ready to vote for the text, other deputies are reluctant to support the motion. A group decision must be made Monday before 4 p.m.
The hesitation also seems to affect the RN deputies who must discuss and make a decision shortly before the session in the Assembly this Monday. “There are arguments for and arguments against” the vote on the motion underlined Marine Le Pen during the “Grand Rendez-Vous” ofEurope 1, CNews And The echoes : “The argument against is that obviously we want to debate. The pro is that it is quite obvious that we are head-on opposed to this law.”
Attempt to discredit the majority
The chances that the motion to reject will be voted on are “low” according to the majority’s predictions. But the risk exists and to protect itself from it, the presidential camp is betting and insisting on the impossible reconciliation of the right and the left on the subject of immigration, including the vote on a motion of rejection. Gérald Darmanin, who has been trying to seduce the right to ensure the vote for his bill for months, has also estimated franceinfo on December 8 that if a coalition is possible it would be “absolutely unnatural”: “Do you see LR parliamentarians voting on a motion on immigration with the Greens and LFI? Do you see the PS and Marleix in the same package of votes? “
An argument that often comes up within the majority and even the government, a source from the executive thus slipped to franceinfo : “It is still very complicated for LR and the RN to explain that we are going to vote on an environmentalist rejection motion, to refuse to debate on immigration”. But has the LR party found a solution to this argument by saying it wants to debate, but only on the text voted by the Senate?
How many votes are needed to reject the immigration bill?
To be adopted and prevent debates in the National Assembly, the environmentalists’ motion to reject must gather a majority of votes in relation to the number of deputies present in the hemicycle at the time of the vote. To make the task difficult for the opposition, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne ordered the majority deputies to be present at the debates this Monday. Opposite, elected officials from the left, as well as those from the right and the far right should also be present in large numbers. The necessary majority could then approach the absolute majority of 289 votes out of 577.
The rejection motion can count on the elected representatives of the left, or nearly 150 votes if all support the motion (75 rebels, 31 socialists, 23 ecologists and 22 deputies from the Democratic and Republican Left). The majority will be able to count on the votes of its 251 deputies to oppose the motion. That leaves the 62 Republican and affiliated deputies, the 88 elected representatives of the National Rally and those of the Libertés, Indépendants, Outre-mer et Territoires (Liot) group to tip the balance to one side or the other. But unless there is massive support for the rejection motion, around forty votes against the motion would be enough for the immigration bill to be debated in the Assembly.