10,000 migrants have landed in recent days on the island of Lampedusa in Italy, which has an area of 20 square kilometers and has only 6,000 inhabitants. This simple comparison produces a clash of images and political opportunities taken advantage of by some. This is, for example, the case of Marion Maréchal, who rushed to the scene to show that migratory fear was not unfounded. His efforts will not have to be too great, because, poll after poll, the French indicate that they are sensitive to this issue and are demanding a firm policy.
The question of migration is a sea serpent of our political imagination. We remember that, already in the context of the legislative elections of 1978, the National Front proclaimed on its posters: “1 million unemployed is 1 million too many immigrants!” Migratory fear has long taken the form of concern for the control of essential resources. Access to employment being, in the contemporary world and at a time when the unemployment rate was high, an object of priority concern. This migratory fear is, however, not rationally founded. This is what underlines a recent report published by the Montaigne Institute and signed by Bruno Tertrais, entitled “Demography in France: consequences for tomorrow’s public action”. It is therefore recalled, on the basis of scientific literature, that immigration has a very small impact on employment and wages. Likewise, this population does not have a major influence on our country’s GDP or on public finances, because it is over-represented in the working age categories. It therefore contributes more than it costs, even if it is true that it increases the nation’s costs in terms of education and health.
Rather than fearing that immigrants will steal jobs from natives, we should scrutinize the predictable demographic conditions awaiting our country: the decline of the working population. Indeed, the natural balance (balance of births and deaths) should become negative from 2035. Furthermore, those over 65 will represent 30% of the population in 2070 (while they will be 21% in 2023). We can also conjecture that, around 2030, 760,000 positions will be filled annually, when only 640,000 young people will enter the job market. This will constitute a human deficit of approximately 100,000 people each year. So, unless we want to become a country made impotent by the average age of its citizens, we will have to respond to the demographic challenge.
Narrative change
Few solutions are available. The first is to promote a pronatalist policy. Without judging its desirability, it seems to me that this solution is unrealistic because the birth rate in a population is a data that evolves slowly and rarely increases, whatever the incentives envisaged.
The second would be to accept more emigrants into our territory. One might optimistically assume that this option will become more widely accepted – and therefore without any real political consequences – as the need arises. This would be to forget that the fear of migration has changed the narrative. Indeed, it is no longer a question of fearing, as on the old National Front posters, a competition for economic resources, but rather a symbolic domination of public space. For the year 2022, residence permits issued reached a record 320,000, and the individuals benefiting from them were mainly Africans, particularly from the Maghreb.
The French will perhaps agree to abandon the economic fear that emigrants inspire in them, but they will have more difficulty abandoning the fear that certain values – whether they relate to religious or cultural variables – are incompatible with the idea they have of France. This narrative mutation is tangible in the theme of the “great replacement”. Regardless of the integration efforts that it is legitimate to expect from populations who wish to live in our country, it is now vital to rethink city and housing policies: making a priority of avoiding all cluster cultural and economic that could strengthen the arrival of these new populations. Only an anticipated policy of social diversity will be able to avoid the predictable political consequences of the demographic issues that will confront us. Will our politicians be able to see far enough?
* Gérald Bronner is a sociologist and professor at Sorbonne University