The Prime Minister announced to La Tribune on Sunday his intention to pass the budget thanks to a 49.3. A motion of censorship should be deposited, but not sure that it is adopted.
The 2025 budget will go through 49.3 or the Bayrou government will fall. The Prime Minister made his choice and announced it in La Tribune on SundayFebruary 2: he will draw article 49.3 to shorten the debates in the National Assembly on the 2025 budget as well as that of Social Security. The text that François Bayrou will try to go into force is the version after joint joint commission deputy-senators, according to the Minister of the Budget Amélie de Montchalin, reports Release.
After several weeks of negotiations, especially with the PS in order to have a chance to survive a censorship, François Bayrou is in a hurry: “You have to go without delay to adoption. A country like ours cannot remain without budget.” It must be said that the adoption of the budget is particularly late this year. Usually a budget is discussed, negotiated, voted and adopted before the year begins. But the dissolution, followed by the resignation of the Attal government, followed by the “Olympic truce”, then the slow constitution of the Barnier government, then its censorship after a 49.3 failed for the budget, of a new just as slow reshuffle, And finally new negotiations for the budget have taken time. François Bayrou said it when he arrived in Matignon, France will have a budget in February. But this will only be possible if the government is not censored.
Possible censorship?
The Prime Minister is ready to engage the responsibility of his government. He made a risky bet in view of the fate of his predecessor, which made the same bet. According to François Bayrou, censorship “would be rejected angrily by the French”. Indeed, according to a survey Odoxa-Mascaret for Public-Senate From January 29, 74% of French people plead for the left to find common ground with the government and only 24% prefer censorship.
But then, is censorship really a chance to be adopted? First of all, we can expect a censorship motion to be filed by rebellious France as soon as article 49.3 is activated. Censorship should be passed during the week, probably Wednesday since the Prime Minister plans to pass his text in force on Monday. Communists and environmentalists should vote censorship with the rebellious, but nothing is certain for the socialists and the extreme right. However, for censorship to be adopted, their votes are necessary, like the censorship of the Barnier government. An observation which reassures François Bayrou who believes that “these two parties know it as well as me”, the French “do not want to go from destruction in destruction, live from censorship to censorship, from dissolution in dissolution”.
Regarding the socialists, nothing says that they could vote a possible censorship. Indeed, following several weeks of negotiations, they could decide to let this budget pass. In addition, Bayrou received the support of a socialist predecessor, Lionel Jospin, who assured on France 5 That “voting censorship today, indeed, it would not be responsible” for the PS “and even all the forces on the left”.
The RN may well vote censorship. Its deputies have already shown that they are not disturbed to vote a motion of censorship deposited by their left opponents by censoring the Barnier government. In addition, the party is already in the campaign for any election that could happen. According to the current calendar, it was the municipal elections in 2026, then the presidential election in 2027, but the RN pleads for a new dissolution and wishes to do better than to the last legislative elections if it was indeed the case. Jordan Bardella even organized a meeting in front of 3,000 supporters from his party in Montélimar (Drôme) on Saturday, February 1.
Regarding right -wing deputies, a vote of censorship would be particularly surprising. They expressed themselves in the person of Laurent Wauquiez, the head of the deputies LR, with support which is decided text by text.