The International Monetary Fund has slightly lowered its global growth forecast for 2023, but expects major economic regions to avoid recession, according to data released Tuesday at its spring meetings in Washington. .
The institution now anticipates global growth of 2.8% in 2023, down slightly from its previous estimate in January: -0.1 percentage point. For 2024, the IMF expects global growth of 3%, which should also be the average expected over the next five years, the worst medium-term outlook since 1990. “ We are still facing an economy in the recovery phase after the shocks of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The reopening of China has allowed a strong rebound on the spot and the tensions on the supply chains are gradually disappearing “, underlined the chief economist of the IMF, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, during a press conference.
For most countries, however, a return to normal is not yet in sight. In particular, inflation should remain high in 2023, around 7% worldwide. “ The massive response from central banks is starting to bring inflation closer to their 2% target. But in some countries, inflation has not yet peaked, which could force further monetary tightening », That is to say in the rate hikes of central banks, detailed Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Upheavals in the financial sector
The task could be more complicated by the recent upheavals in the financial sector, particularly in the United States, following the failure of three regional banks and the hasty takeover of Credit Suisse by its competitor UBS, against a background of rate hikes by central banks, precisely to fight against inflation. ” The effects that monetary tightening can have on the financial sector may seem worrying. We have repeatedly stressed that the fight against inflation will not be an easy path to follow », underlined Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. ” Some hidden weaknesses surely exist, which is why regulators and supervisors need to be alert. “, he added.
Despite everything, the IMF is revising its growth forecasts for the United States in 2023 upwards, to 1.6%, as well as in the euro zone, to 0.8%, in particular thanks to Italy and the Spain, while France should see its economy slow down (0.7%) and Germany flirt with recession (-0.1%).
Signs of weakness in China
This view is considered to be too optimistic by some analysts, who believe that the IMF underestimates the impact of monetary tightening on advanced economies at the end of the year and next year “. As for China, with the reopening of its economy, after the abandonment of its strict zero-Covid policy at the start of the year, the economic recovery is confirmed. Chinese growth will even once again play a driving role for global growth in 2023, at 5.2%, but will slow down from 2024, to 4.5%, one of its weakest growth rates in the last 30 years, apart from of 2020 with the pandemic, and 2022 with the zero-Covid policy.
However, it will benefit the global economy less, since it is mainly linked to domestic spending. Above all, the signs of weakness are present and encourage the IMF to be cautious in its forecasts. ” There are risks for the Chinese economy, particularly from the real estate sector. The reopening is also marked by an increase in consumption, but not as high as what we have seen in other countries, there is still caution on the part of consumers “, detailed the chief economist.
Russia, in particular, benefits from this raw materials market, and while six months ago a severe recession was announced there, the economy should, according to the IMF, progress by 0.7% this year and 1.3 % in 2024, despite the sanctions imposed by Western economic powers.
(With AFP)