(Finance) – Il International Monetary Fund confirmed the GDP growth forecast of 0.7% this year for theItaly, slowing down after +0.9% in 2023, while the growth estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by 0.4 percentage points, now in turn indicated at +0.7%. Based on data from World Economic OutlookItaly would be the country with the lowest economic growth rate among the large economies of the euro area in 2025, while this year the lowest level would be 0.2% in Germany, moreover after a recession of 0.3 % in 2023.
For Italy the IMF also provides ainflation which this year will be drastically reduced, to 1.7% after 5.9% in 2023, while in 2025 it should rise slightly to 2%. The Washington institution expects that on the peninsula the unemployment rises slightly to 7.8% this year, from 7.7% in 2023, and then to 8% in 2025. Finally, the balance of Italian exchanges with foreign countries: The expected current account surplus is set at 0.8% of GDP this year, compared with 0.2% in 2023, and 1.3% of GDP in 2025.
The International Monetary Fund then confirmed the global economic growth forecasts, indicating a 3.2% expansion both this year and for 2025 (just a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point for this year). The levels of expansion are judged “lower than historical averages” by the IMF itself, while in the editorial of the publication it was noted that economic activity has “proved surprisingly resilient during the disinflationary process of 2022-2023”.
On the one hand, the Washington institution has revised its growth estimates downwards in the euro area countries. For the currency union aggregate it now indicates 0.8% for this year (-0.1 points compared to January) and 1.5% for the next (-0.2 points). For the Germany forecasts 0.2% growth in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025 (-0.3 points over both years); for the France 0.7% this year and 1.4% next (0.3% less over both years). For the Spain it forecasts 1.9% growth this year and 2.1% next, with the 2024 figure revised upwards by 0.4 points.
As for the United StatesHowever, the IMF has revised its estimates upwards, 2.7% growth this year (+0.6 points) and 1.9% next year (+0.2 points). For the China growth forecasts were confirmed at 4.6% this year and 4.1% next year. For theIndiawhich has had the highest expansion rates among the main global economies for years, the 2024 figure has been revised upwards (by 0.3 points) to 6.8%, while growth of 6.5% is expected in 2025.
The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchasexplained in an article accompanying the update of the World Economic Outlook that in the United States the strong performance of the economy shows that demand remains “overheated” and this requires “caution and a gradual approach in easing” the monetary line ” on the part of Federal Reserve“. In the euro area, however, “there are few signs of overheating and the European Central Bank will have to carefully calibrate the turn towards a loosening monetaryto prevent inflation from falling more than the target”. He also warns that in the euro area “although i markets of labor appear solid, this strength could prove illusory if companies had held back the workers anticipating an economic recovery that does not materialize.”
(Photo: © Andrej Kaprinay, Ing./123RF)