TAIPEI Taiwan is a factor in the world larger than its actual size.
As Saturday’s parliamentary and presidential elections approach, this has been highlighted again.
China has interfered in the elections quite frankly. China’s state media has called the leader of the presidential polls, who uses the western first name William Aunt Lai Ching separatist.
According to China William Lain being elected president would further weaken China-Taiwan relations.
Lai’s election rally in Taipei’s Lai-hsiao district is attended by several thousand people. The speaking stage is set up in the middle of the wide street. There is a considerable number of young people in their twenties among the audience.
Lai slopes to the west
Lai has a different view of how to deal with China than the other candidates.
He follows his party’s line of peaceful coexistence as much as possible, but at the same time emphasizes closer relations with the United States and other Western countries.
Lai would also rapidly invest more in Taiwan’s national defense.
In the audience Put a student listening Hong accepts this.
– I am not afraid of war, but I am aware of the realities. They are currently such that Taiwan needs an international president like Lai, says Hong.
Hong explains his position in more detail in the video below.
64-year-old Lai, who represents the Democratic Progressive Party DPP, is a former doctor turned politician. Since 2020, he has been working as the president of Popular Tsai Ing-wen as vice president.
Tsai has served two four-year terms, so according to the constitution, she could no longer run for office.
The counter-candidate would negotiate with China
The challenger to the law is the Kuomintang, or KMT party Hou Yu-ih. The 66-year-old Hou has been working as the mayor of Taipei since 2018.
Like his conservative party, he appeals especially to the older electorate.
At Hou’s election rally on the outskirts of downtown Taipei, the audience is mainly middle-aged and older people.
Hou Yu-ih speaks at the event about China’s military threat and the need to start a dialogue with China.
He justifies his position with the events in Ukraine. It was a surprise or outright shock to many Taiwanese that the United States has not gone to war in Ukraine, but has contented itself with giving it only military aid.
This could also be Taiwan’s fate if it were to come into conflict with China, Hou reminds.
The United States provides armed assistance to Taiwan. President Joe Biden has said that the United States will come to the rescue if China attacks Taiwan. However, there is no agreement on military assistance between the US and Taiwan.
GDP/inhabitant in 2022 approx. 29,810 euros (42,291 euros in Finland).
More than 50% of the world’s microchips and 90% of the most advanced microchips are manufactured in Taiwan.
Taiwan was founded in 1949, when the Kuomintang party, which fought against the communists, escaped from mainland China and founded the Republic of China on the island. When we talk about China, we usually mean the People’s Republic of China, which was established in mainland China at that time.
China considers Taiwan a rebel province.
Taiwan’s independence has been officially recognized only by 13 Pacific and Central American countries and the Vatican.
A retired lady Xu Ziq listens to Hou’s speech in the stands of the stage set up in the park area.
Xu and many other Hou supporters accept the strengthening of Taiwan’s national defense.
– I am afraid of the outbreak of war, Xu reasons.
In the video, Xu tells more about his fear.
The current government led by the DPP has already increased Taiwan’s defense budget to 2.6 percent of gross domestic product. Two percent of GDP is, among other things, the target level of NATO member countries.
The next year the board decided extend the conscription period from four months to a year.
According to an election expert, Hou’s moderate approach to China may even decide the presidential race.
– The majority of Taiwanese support the current state of affairs. The people do not want to increase the tension with China further, Ching Hsin-yu says.
He works as the director of the Election Research Center of Chengchi University.
A time of danger in the coming months?
China’s military maneuvering has accelerated as the election approaches.
According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense, on Thursday alone, 15 Chinese military aircraft and four warships visited the island’s territorial boundaries.
China’s actions were expected in Taiwan. It has worked the same way during the previous elections as well, says election expert Ching Hsin-yu.
– China’s real intentions will be seen after the elections. The president’s inauguration is only in May, and the exceptionally long interim period may be even more tense than these weeks before the election have been, Ching reflects.
“The law can be more moderate in its words”
Ching and other experts interviewed by in Taipei remind us that it is still difficult to assess the significance of the pro-Western William Lai’s possible election victory.
Between Taiwan and China, we are used to harsh rhetoric on both sides.
Lai’s speeches have been like a red garment for China. Especially the fact that he has said that he supports Taiwan’s independence.
However, it may be that Lai’s program as president would be more moderate than it sounds, experts estimate.
The goal of the Chinese Communist Party is the unification of China and Taiwan no later than 2049, when the People’s Republic of China turns one hundred years old.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said in his New Year’s speech that he considered unification certain.
Jobs are the deciding factor after all?
Ching sees Lai’s greatest strengths in the Democratic Party’s traditional election themes. They may even become more important in the minds of the voters than the Chinese threat when the polling stations open on Saturday.
– Jobs, especially youth employment and having enough money in middle-class households. These especially concern Taiwanese voters, Ching says.
Themes important to older voters are, for example, improving health care and the status of the elderly without significantly tightening taxation.