Inflexibility in the face of facts once led to a complete defeat in the war in Afghanistan. A similar development now threatens Ukraine, Käihkö worries.
Ilmari Kaishkö Docent of Military Sciences
Ukraine is living a critical moment. Although there is international support promised for as long as the need is, the support still falters as well in Europe that Stateside. There is something darkly familiar about the situation: it resembles the events in Afghanistan.
That war lasted two decades. Just like in Ukraine, the war in Afghanistan was also accompanied by a strong moral ethos of the West: democracy and human rights had to be defended against brutal tyranny.
Strong conviction and good values do not necessarily support good and responsible decision-making.
In democracies, it is ultimately the people who decide whether to go to war, and since war is terrible, related decisions are justified by values rather than, for example, pure power interests.
But strong conviction and good values do not necessarily support good and responsible decision-making.
This was seen in Afghanistan, where Finland, along with others, hung on to big but vague goals to promote justice.
However, vague, big goals are difficult to achieve. Our low investments and unsuitable operating methods made the mission in Afghanistan hopeless. Because of our inflexible convictions, every compromise meant betraying our own values.
Over time, we got frustrated to slow progress, and we forgot the values for which we fought in Afghanistan. When the regime we supported collapsed, everyone who believed in our words was left in trouble.
Officials to our war aims was heard for example promoting gender equality and improving the status of women. After the war, the situation of women in Afghanistan is now so bad that there is no word to describe it gender apartheid.
It is not an exaggeration to saythat we lost the war in Afghanistan completely.
We are repeating the mistakes of Afghanistan in the power of naïve faith in Ukraine.
I’m afraid we’re not have learned our lesson: now we repeat the same mistakes in the power of naive faith in Ukraine.
When the Russian invasion began, our strong conviction of the rightness of the Ukrainian cause led to a duty support “solidified Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, self-determination and territorial integrity.”
However, our strong rhetoric is alienated from reality: we help the Ukrainians to continue the war, we don’t to win the.
A key lesson of the war in Afghanistan was that complacency is dangerous. The enemies of democracy, and (in our opinion) the appeal of their repulsive policies, should not be underestimated.
Another Afghanistan lesson is that there is not wise holding tight to everything if it only leads to losing everything in the end.
The danger of a strong conviction is blackness, an inflexibility alienated from reality. In Afghanistan, it led to bad decisions and ultimately fiasco.
We are helping the Ukrainians to continue the war, not win it.
The same mistakes seem to continue in Ukraine. Even now we lack an idea of how profit or even that achievement enabling strategy seem
Supporting Ukraine only to continue the war tells about wishful thinking. We are just waiting for some surprising turn to save us and Ukraine from the difficult situation.
The idea is like Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland –the novel With a grinning cat: if you don’t know where you want to go, it doesn’t matter which road you choose. However, responsible politics must be based on facts – not wishful thinking. And on the other hand – like the character in the novel Irvikissa: it is impossible to form a good goal and a strategy that matches the means, if you don’t know what you want.
I’m afraid the story Afghanistan repeats itself: we enable the war to continue with no apparent end. At some point, it becomes undeniable that we have demanded more than we have been prepared to invest in. If this happens, we will also pull the rug from under the Ukrainians’ feet.
Everything possible must be done so that it does not happen. Already because, unlike in Afghanistan, we have much stronger selfish interests in Ukraine. Preventing the collapse of Ukraine is both morally right and strategically wise.
Currently, the outcome of the war in Ukraine will be worse than it could be. A better result can only be reached the facts with a recognition strategy.
Ilmari Käihkö
The author is a military scientist who believes that we have a duty to learn from the wars that have already been fought – and above all the ones that have been lost – for future ones.