(Finance) – Intesa Sanpaolo has increased a 3.0 euros per share (from the previous 2.6 euros) the target price on IGD SIIQone of the main players in Italy in the retail real estate sector and a company listed on Euronext STAR Milan, confirming the recommendation on the title to “Buy” given the potential upside of 20%.
Analysts write that the objectives of the plan 2025-27 are based on the strategic guidelines provided previously and include: 1) management of liabilities aimed at reshaping the maturity profile, in a scenario of more favorable interest rates; 2) operational initiatives to increase net operating income; and 3) a more attractive portfolio through targeted investments. The ultimate goal is return to a stable dividend distribution.
Intesa’s estimates do not take into account any disposals during the plan period, which could therefore represent an increase in terms of profitability (net profit), FFO and LTV. The broker largely confirms the turnover and EBITDA hypotheses, while improves FY25-26 net profit mainly due to lower average cost of debt considering refinancing in 1Q25. It forecasts €50 million of capex in 2025-27. It assumes that the DPS is equal to 0.05 euros FY24, to be paid in 2025, and that it increases to 0.14 euros in 2025, 0.16 euros in 2026, 0.18 euros in 2027. LTV is expected to improve to 42 .2% (from approximately 45% expected in 2024), compared to the IGD target in 2027 (40%).
“The stock is trading for one 73% discount compared to 2025 NAV compared to an average of 37% of retail real estate securities – we read in the research – We continue to appreciate the solid operational performance of IGD’s portfolio and believe that, in the future, the improvement in visibility on sales and planned refinancings, in a context of falling interest rates, could support the revaluation process of the title”.