Ukraine will probably try a new attack during the winter to retake the territories occupied by Russia. This is what the head teacher of the Department of Military Art at the National Defense University believes Jarmo Mattila.
The Russian forces are worn out after the autumn battles, and the initiative in the war has been with Ukraine since September.
If Ukraine wants to take back the territories it lost, the most suitable moment would be in the winter months, Mattila estimates. In spring, in March-April, the terrain becomes difficult when the frost melts and the rivers swell from the meltwater. Russia is also training and equipping new troops, which may go to the front in late spring or early summer.
Mattila is convinced that Ukraine will attempt an attack during the winter.
– I believe, but it’s hard to say how strongly. But if we give the Russians a break now, they will try again later.
According to Mattila, the Ukrainian army is currently planning in which direction the attack would take place.
– Do they try to cross the Dnieper directly, if it freezes in the backwaters, or from the east side of Zaporizhia. But they are trying for something, says Mattila.
If Ukraine does not take advantage of this opportunity, Russia may try to take the initiative of the war again in the summer.
In Bahmut, the traffic center is at war
In recent weeks, the fiercest battles of the war have been seen in the central part of the front, around the town of Bahmut.
Russia has stubbornly continued its frontal attack, even though Ukraine is able to inflict great losses on it.
According to Mattila, the importance of Bahmut lies in its transport connections. Roads and railways leave the city in different directions.
The maintenance of the Russian armed forces depends on the railways. If Russia wants to expand its attack in time, it must get control of the railway crossing station.
Mattila reminds that Russia failed here in the direction of Kharkiv, when Russia had to retreat.
If Russia takes control of the crossing areas, it will enable the forces to shift their focus. Service connections from the mother country Russia are also short.
When Russia keeps up the pressure, it is able to bind Ukrainian forces and wear them down.
In addition, the background of the battles in the direction of Bahmut is Russia’s original goal, i.e. to take control of the Donbas region.
Traditional warfare
Lieutenant Colonel Mattila estimates that Bahmut’s war is very traditional warfare. Russian artillery, rocket launchers and helicopters fire on Ukrainian positions, then tanks and infantry attack.
Ukrainian defenders are trying their best to hold their position in difficult conditions. Mattila guesses that they don’t have very strongly fortified defense structures at their disposal. Rather, it is a matter of shelters built into the ruins and pots dug quickly with a shovel.
– Conditions are pretty harsh where we fight.
Russia’s progress has been very slow. For example, east of Bahmut, it has progressed only a few kilometers during the fall.
According to Mattila, there are no signs that the Ukrainian front is breaking or that it is about to bow to Russia.
– It’s not bending. In Ukraine, the will to defend the country is very high, and it has only strengthened with the successes of Kharkiv and Kherson, Mattila states.
Up-to-date monitoring of ‘s Ukraine news
Ukraine’s attacks on Russia are a significant turning point in the war – Finnish expert: This is a big threat to Russia