If we continue like this, we will exceed +1.5°C warming in 2028!

To save the climate, we must reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Everyone knows that now. Yet our emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), which had taken advantage of the health crisis to fall in 2020, have indeed started to rise again. At this rate, our carbon budget could be exhausted in less than 10 years.

A few days ago, the International Agency forenergy (AIE) already reported it. Our carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) reached an unprecedented level in 2021. Researchers engaged in the program CarbonMonitor confirm it today. After a decline due to health crisis in 2020, they recorded a 4.8% rebound in emissions at the World level. And at this rate, our carbon budget could well be exhausted in less than 10 years!

“Emissions are on the rise again in most sectors in major countries”, say the researchers. It is however the air Transport which experienced the strongest rebound. On domestic routes, the increase in emissions is close to 26%! And on international routes, it exceeds 18%. Against an increase of ” only “ 5% for electricity production, 2.6% for industry and 8.9% for road transport — yet historically the largest emitter (513 megatonnes of CO equivalent₂ out of a total of 34.9 gigatons of CO equivalent₂).

Another angle for reading the data made public by the program CarbonMonitor : CO emissions₂ by country. We thus learn that if China has experienced a rebound of nearly 6%, France unfortunately exceeds 10%! And only Japan seems to have been able to maintain its emissions at a more or less constant level (-0.32 MtCO₂). In the ” rest of the world “ — except major greenhouse gas emitters –, emissions increased by just over 1%.

Even zero emission targets will be insufficient

The researchers note that the world has experienced such situations of emissions dropping and then rebounding before. During the energy crises of 1974, 1980-1982 and 1992 as well as during the financial crisis of 2008. As if history wanted to repeat itself. And ultimately reduce the confidence we might have in global warming mitigation actions.

“Our carbon budget could be exhausted in less than 10 years”comment the researchers of the program CarbonMonitor. Recall that the “carbon budget” corresponds to the maximum amount of global CO emissions₂ that would limit warming to a given level with a given probability from a specified date. Thus, from 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates our carbon budget at 400 GtCO2 if we want, with a probability of 67%, to limit warming to 1.5°C. It rises to 1,150 GtCO2 for warming maintained below 2°C. Thus our 2021 emissions alone have consumed nearly 9% of our carbon budget for a warming of 1.5°C.

Based on these figures, the researchers alert us. If our emissions were to continue at this rate, without the implementation of immediate reduction strategies, we would no longer be able to limit warming to 1.5°C as early as 2031 — with a probability of 67% — and at 2°C by 2052. It even seems more likely — with an 83% likelihood — that the point of no return of 1.5°C will be reached by 2028. And that of 2.0°C by 2045!

Most worryingly, the 2022 data from the program CarbonMonitor are already showing a further increase in global greenhouse gas emissions. And the researchers point out that even if each country respected its net zero emissions targetsthe main emitting countries alone would exceed 400 GtCO₂ of our carbon budget before 2045!