Ukraine’s resistance to Russian forces has been persistent and, according to various official estimates, has frustrated Russians.
The situation in Ukraine is tightening momentarily in the eastern part of the country and in the vicinity of Kiev. According to the latest data from the news agency AFP, the Russian army has been ordered to expand the attack now from all directions.
Otherwise, the situation has remained relatively stable on Saturday, a research officer at the National Defense College, Captain Antti Pihlajamaa estimates.
Is Russia going to take Kiev by any means, but what are the next steps? Read here four answers about the current situation in Kiev and Ukraine.
Will Kiev collapse in the coming days?
The Ukrainians are currently pitting really hard against the Russian forces. Even if Kiev collapsed, it would not solve the whole war.
“Despite the fact that Russia has made progress, there are no signs of a collapse in the fighting morale of the Ukrainians, on the contrary,” says Pihlajamaa.
Even if the fall of Kiev were a strategically significant event, it would not necessarily mean an immediate end to the war. Ukraine is a vast country and fighting is taking place elsewhere, Pihlajamaa says.
Ukrainian troops have also managed to slow down Russia’s invasion and inflict losses on it, even though Ukraine’s military deployment came late, when the war had already virtually begun.
Have there been any fighting in Kiev?
Firearms have been heard in the vicinity of Kiev, but fighting has clearly taken place outside Kiev.
Heavy fighting has not yet taken place in Kiev, but outside the city. Most of the battles have been fought against Russian troops heading towards Kiev.
Is Russia aiming for the heart of Kiev?
It is unlikely that Kiev will be captured block by block. More likely, Russian troops will create pressure by besieging the city, and thereby hope for the city to surrender.
Pressure could be created by military and non-military means. Russian troops may try to break into administrative buildings, or incite chaos and panic by disrupting the distribution of water, electricity or gas, for example, Pihlajamaa describes.
– The systematic takeover of Kiev would be a costly, cumbersome and time-consuming operation for Russia. Therefore, it is likely to be a secondary option for them.
If Russia fails to take over Kiev, then what will happen?
If the siege of Kiev does not work, elsewhere in Ukraine the ground invasion will be further expanded.
Although the war has not gone as planned for the Russians so far, not all the traps have been used.
– One option is to cut Ukraine in half from north to south along the Dnieper River. It is a risky option, as the service connections would be long for Russian troops and the sides of the attack would be long, Pihlajamaa reflects.
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