On this cool March morning, Grutas Park seems sheltered from the world. The water in the lake is motionless, frozen. By a temperature of – 2°C, the ducks walk on the grass, with the rabbits, between the statues of Lénine, Stalin and other Karl Marx. When the Soviet Union fell in 1990, Lithuania gathered most of its monuments to the glory of communism in this remote area, in the extreme south-east of the country, near the town of Druskininkai.
Under a big blue sky, a roar of thunder is heard near this open-air museum. Then a second. Every five minutes, a series of explosions, in the distance, shakes the ground and flies away the birds. In front of a wooden chalet, a park employee puffs on his cigarette. Sitting, his face emaciated and partly hidden by his black cap, he shrugs his shoulders at the sound of explosions, then just sighs: “Belarus…”
“In the event of a Russian invasion, this corridor cuts off the three Baltic States from the rest of the Atlantic Alliance”
The Lithuanian town of Druskininkai is located three kilometers from the Belarusian border, in a strategic place called the Suwalki Corridor. Unknown to the general public, this 65 kilometer long area haunts the nights of Western military experts. On an east-west axis, it delimits the border between Lithuania and Poland, two countries of NATO and the European Union. At its extremities, it abuts Belarus (to the east) and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad (to the west). “Suwalki is the Achilles’ heel of NATO, explains Amélie Zima, researcher in international relations and author of NATO (What do I know?, 2021). In the event of a Russian invasion, this corridor cuts off the three Baltic States from the rest of the Atlantic Alliance. The latter would find themselves on an island, surrounded by Russia, and NATO assistance could then only be provided by air or by sea.”
In Suwalki, a town of 70,000 inhabitants, life goes on despite the tensions.
Hiromi Uechi/The Yomiuri Shimbun/AFP
This weak point of NATO, known for years, today takes on a new dimension. By invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin showed that he was capable of anything to restore the territory of the Soviet Union. He also announced the permanent dispatch of 30,000 Russian soldiers to Belarus, a state vassalized by the Kremlin since the popular uprisings of 2020. “This invasion unfortunately goes far beyond Ukraine, maintains American General Joseph Ralston, commander of Allied forces in Europe from 2000 to 2003. Once Putin is done with Ukraine, one way or another, he will not stop there and will want to seize the Suwalki corridor. It would be a way for him to encircle the Baltics and connect Kaliningrad with the rest of his fantasized great Russia.”
The corridor owes its name to its most populated city, Suwalki, located on the Polish side. With its bars of Soviet-style buildings, the city of 70,000 inhabitants continues its peaceful life, despite the surrounding tensions. “Now that you mention it, it’s true that we live in a very strategic area, thinks aloud Ela, a young employee of the town hall of Suwalki, in front of her coffee. Putin never talks about Poland, so we don’t be suspicious. no more than that, but it’s true that he seems to resent the Baltics. With him, it’s the return of history, a single man who decides everything.”
Infographics
Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
In front of her, her colleague Beata regularly holds her head in her hands. At 45, this petite woman, blonde hair squared, lived the first years of her life under a communist regime, under the influence of Moscow. She brandishes her mobile phone and shows a video she has just received: in a sermon, the Patriarch of Moscow calls for “unifying the Soviet peoples” and therefore for invading “Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the Baltic countries “. Beata shakes her head. “They want to take us back thirty years, to extend their great empire from the Baltic to Siberia, laments the Polish secretary. It’s so sad, as if we never had the right to be safe with these Russian zombies as neighbors.”
The risk is all the more real as Suwalki is not an impregnable corridor. In this agricultural region, a few villages follow one another in the middle of fields and small valleys. An ideal playground for tanks. “This is a difficult area to defend, a small strip of land whose car journey from one end to the other is counted in minutes, underlines Yohann Michel, military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies In the event of a blockage, any passage through this corridor would be made impossible by the firepower of the Russian artillery on both sides and it is very complex to fight there.” Only two one-lane roads and a railway line cross this passage from Poland to Lithuania, making any rapid defense intervention complicated, if not impossible if you take into account the civilians to be evacuated.
These weaknesses of Suwalki were highlighted by General Ben Hodges in a damning report published in 2018. This former commander of American forces in Europe warns: “NATO members must have no doubt that Russian forces are threatening the territorial integrity of the entire transatlantic Alliance. All the weaknesses of NATO’s strategy NATO and its military posture are converging on the Suwalki corridor.”
“It’s no coincidence that the Americans are here”
This military strategist, now retired, insists on the perfect knowledge of the region by the Russians, who regularly send their spies there. Ben Hodges also reveals that Russian and Belarusian forces practiced seizing the Suwalki Corridor during their major Zapad military exercises of 2013 and 2017. “Today, NATO forces remain on a strategic plan of war cold, deplores the former American lieutenant: defense in depth, which consists in agreeing to let the adversary seize ground, for example in Suwalki, in exchange for the time necessary to bring in reinforcements and carry out a campaign of liberation. 21st century Russia’s combat techniques are hybrid, deceptive, and incredibly effective at slowing down or confusing opponents’ counterattacks.”
In recent days, military jeeps have increased their rotations near Suwalki. A NATO base, under American command, is established 60 kilometers from Kaliningrad, near the town of Orzysz. “It is no coincidence that the Americans are here and not in Poznan or Warsaw, explains Amélie Zima. They are strategically placed to allow rapid defense of the Suwalki corridor in the event of an attack. NATO takes this into account. weak point, even if its workforce on site remains modest to say the least.” In all, the Atlantic Alliance has less than 5,000 soldiers in the Baltic countries and in Poland, when Russia has 30,000 in its only exclave of Kaliningrad.
Despite the threat, the Russian stalemate in Ukraine and the unity shown by NATO could offer a few years of respite to Poland and Lithuania. “Attacking the Suwalki corridor is like going to war with NATO and Putin knows it, says Radoslaw Sikorski, Polish Foreign Minister from 2007 to 2014. This war would not be limited to certain territories in Poland or Lithuania. just hope Putin isn’t crazy enough to go into a war he’s sure to lose.” Only one man has the answer to this question and, unfortunately, he lives in the Kremlin.