A specialist in the Republican Party, the historian Françoise Coste is the author of Reagan (Perrin), a biography dedicated to the former tenant of the White House (1981-1988). Today considered a “great president”, he was the inventor of the formula “Let’s make America great again,” taken over by Donald Trump. Having just returned from a study trip to the South of the United States, Françoise Coste fears the turn that a possible second term for Trump would take.
L’Express: Will Donald Trump succeed in his comeback?
Françoise Coste: With 40 points ahead of his Republican competitors, I don’t see how he could lose the primaries which start in two months. His former vice president Mike Pence withdrew from the race in October. Others are expected to throw in the towel soon. In January, there will be only a handful of pre-candidates. Even for Nikki Haley, whose breakthrough is real but limited, catching up with Trump seems mission impossible. In my opinion, this former ambassador to the UN (2017-2018) is positioning herself for the position of vice-president. In order to be legitimate in Trump’s eyes, she must stay in the race as long as possible, at least until New Hampshire in January.
Why does little New Hampshire (1.3 million souls) matter to her?
Because she is of Indian origin and it is a state populated by 97% whites, like the Republican electorate. If it performs well, Trump will see it as a positive signal. Nikki Haley has already proven herself in South Carolina, where she was elected governor in 2010 and 2014 (whites represent 67% of the population), but it is necessary to check whether she is “bankable” outside her native state.
Trump or Biden: your prediction?
Biden’s economic record (full employment, controlled inflation, growth) is very good. Among rich countries, the United States is the one that has bounced back the best after Covid. Due to the legal proceedings against Trump, the outgoing president is expected to lead the race by a wide margin. But we are no longer in a logical world. In 2016, everyone made fun of Trump and thought that Hillary Clinton’s victory would be just a formality. Nothing like that today.
Are events in the Middle East favoring Trump?
Polls reveal American Jews’ concern about pro-Palestinian protests on campus. They are very grateful to Biden for his support for Israel. Conversely, those under 30 criticize this positioning. A divide is widening between generations, on the Democratic side. Some young people will abstain or vote for the independent (and outside the system) candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr – who nevertheless flirted with anti-Semitism by suggesting that Covid spared the Jews – rather than give their vote to Biden. It will be a protest vote, comparable to that for Jean Lassalle in France in 2022.
What would Trump 2 look like?
It would be Trump 1 but worse because he will be more seasoned and now he knows the institutions. During his first term, he surrounded himself with members of the Republican establishment to compensate for his inexperience. There were also Generals Jim Mattis (Secretary of Defense) and HR McMaster (National Security Advisor) to guide him on international issues, not forgetting the austere and methodical General John Kelly (Chief of Staff). These safeguards are no longer there.
Would his presidency be “illiberal”?
Trump rejects institutions. He has already announced that he will sue Biden and his advisers. We do not know for what purpose; it would be a simple vendetta. In the House of Representatives, the new speaker [NDLR : président de l’assemblée]the ultraconservative Mike Johnson elected on October 25, would preside, if he is reappointed, a majority which shares with Trump the erroneous belief that Biden was fraudulently elected in 2020. He is not alone: January 6, 2021, not less than 150 elected officials in the current House of Representatives and around ten senators refused to validate Biden’s election…
Furthermore, Trump will renew his attacks against the press, even though the “fourth power” has long been a fundamental pillar of American democracy. Tensions are also to be expected with the army general staff, which he hates because the high command blocked him on several subjects. Trump wanted to leave NATO? The Pentagon dissuaded him. Trump wanted to attack Iran? The generals tempered it. Trump wanted to organize a military parade in Washington based on the July 14 parade? The generals have slowed down because it is not in the American tradition. In the United States, the army is indeed very legalistic. By tradition, it respects the primacy of civilians over the military. It is no coincidence that she remained on the side of the Constitution during the Capitol insurrection. Trump recently claimed to have never met people dumber than American generals, notably Chief of Staff Mark Milley. [NDLR : parti en retraite le 29 septembre] who, according to him, would have deserved… the death penalty!
Can legal proceedings stop Trump?
The Georgia case is the most interesting, because it is a state-level trial. This means that if convicted, Trump would not be able to pardon himself as he wants to do for trials in federal courts. Above all, he could not put pressure on the governor to pardon him. Georgia is one of only two states out of 50 where the governor does not have the right to pardon.
What would Ronald Reagan think of Donald Trump?
If Reagan [NDLR : 1911-2004] came back today, he would recognize nothing: neither Trump’s Republican Party, nor the political debate, nor his country. Unlike his distant successor, he had faith in NATO. Turning away from Europe to leave the field open to the Russians would seem abject to him. Whatever one thinks of him, Reagan respected institutions and cherished the democratic ideal. If he had not been re-elected in 1984, he would never have fomented an insurrection in front of the Capitol to stay in power.
Françoise Coste, historian and biographer of Ronald Reagan.
© / Coll. Particular
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