This is a defect that Jair Bolsonaro does not have: concealment. “Only God can snatch me from power,” proclaims the Brazilian president. From Rio to Manaus, everyone is warned: we won’t get rid of him just like that. Less than ten weeks before the presidential election on October 2 (second round scheduled for October 30), and when he has just announced his candidacy, this July 24, for a new mandate against the favorite Lula, the young Brazilian democracy never seemed so threatened since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985.
Regularly agitated by Bolsonaro, the threat of a “break” is becoming clearer. For months the far-right leader (Liberal Party, PL) has been insinuating that he might not recognize the verdict of the ballot box if, as the polls predict, he loses against his opponent from the Workers’ Party (PT), former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in power from 2003 to 2011. And for good reason: with 27% of voting intentions, the former infantry captain who became deputy for Rio de Janeiro, then head of state , is the first Brazilian president not to approach a re-election campaign as a favorite. He is far behind Lula, who, with 48% of the voting intentions, could win in the first round.
In the wheel of Trump
That’s why Bolsonaro is working to undermine trust in Brazil’s electronic voting system, one of the most secure and efficient in the world. For him, the electronic ballot box cannot be “audited”, hence the risk of fraud, as he repeated, on July 18, in front of an audience of ambassadors. But this is false: the device issues a report detailing the number of votes for each candidate. Since its entry into force in 1996, no fraud has been observed. Bolsonaro assures him however: the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which organizes the ballot, rolls for Lula. “Bolsonaro knows he is going to lose, supports his opponent, impassive. He therefore wants to cause mayhem, before, during and after the elections. Like Trump.” “Clearly, he follows the Trump model, confirms political scientist Carlos Augusto Poggio. But our institutions are more fragile than those of the United States, which stopped the ex-president.”
“Either we hold clean elections, or there will be no elections at all!” threatened the president a year ago. His proposal: add a printer to the electronic ballot boxes. Each voter would leave the voting booth with a paper proof of their vote, proof that their vote has been taken into account. But the parliament refused to ratify this violation of the principle of electoral secrecy. And this, despite the column of tanks that the army chief Bolsonaro paraded at the same time under the windows of Congress. In the absence of a “printed vote”, Jair Bolsonaro is now calling for a parallel count of the votes, which would be held by the army in order… “to improve confidence in the result”.
For researcher Estefania Barboza, who works on “new authoritarianisms”, the spiral of escalation is in place: “We are witnessing a new January 6, 2021 in slow motion”, she says, in reference to the assault on the Capitol. in Washington. The day after these events, Bolsonaro also brandished the threat of an “even more serious problem than in the United States”. The fact is that the “Trump of the tropics” is better placed than the former American president to obtain the support of his army. After the dictatorship, generals and other senior officers withdrew from political life. Today, they hold six ministerial portfolios and 3041 posts in the civil service!
Would the military institution endorse a coup if the Planalto tenant refused to leave? This is the great unknown of this ballot of all perils. Tensions are rising between the military and the TSE, which does not bode well. Faced with an announced crisis, the court involuntarily brought the wolf into the fold by inviting a representative of the army to sit on the commission responsible for supervising the ballot. “The objective was to obtain military approval for the electoral process to avoid any risk of contestation of the result, explains Professor Barboza. However, the army, which had never before contested the electronic ballot box, now endorses the questions of Bolsonaro…”
“Ideologized armed civilians”
From there to say that she would allow herself to be exploited to keep him in power at all costs, there is only one step that many are reluctant to take. “If the president is still tolerated, it is precisely because he is about to leave,” they say in Lula’s entourage. On the subject, the army is divided. “Tension exists between those who defend the politicization of the institution and the supporters of neutrality, describes political scientist Frédéric Louault. However, the most favorable scenario for the armed forces would be to keep Bolsonaro in place. A return of Lula would mean their general withdrawal from power. Unless they negotiate the retention of certain positions.”
Meanwhile, the president distributes privileges to the military who, for example, are spared by the pension reform and by the budget cuts in the defense budget. “He tries to drag them into his game by all means, deciphers political scientist and jurist Oscar Vilhena Vieira. However, the armed forces retain a certain restraint. The unprecedented dismissal of the heads of the three services in March 2021 shows that the president is doing in the face of resistance. According to former Defense Minister Raul Jungmann, the three commanders had refused to obey a rather special injunction from the President: to fly over the seat of the Supreme Court – the main counterweight to Bolsonaro – by fighter planes in order to to break the windows. On the side of the police forces, where the bolsonarists are numerous but less disciplined, the troop remains calm. The call, launched by a colonel in the province of Sao Paulo, to mobilize on the day of the national holiday, September 7, to give full powers to Bolsonaro was little followed.
The danger could come from elsewhere, such as paramilitaries in Rio or “ideologized armed civilians” – who represent a new phenomenon in Brazil, according to political scientist Lara Mesquita. In fact, under Bolsonaro, the distribution of firearms permits has increased fivefold. Now, individuals have more guns than the police. “There is zero chance that the president will incite his supporters to rise up,” swears his eldest son and campaign leader Flavio Bolsonaro, senator, while refusing to say whether the father would recognize a possible defeat.
United States worried
On the left, we do not want to panic. It would be “playing Bolsonaro’s game”. “A clear victory for Lula would discourage any challenge,” said those around him. “If Bolsonaro loses by a short head, on the other hand, the situation will become greatly unstable”, fears for his part Professor Carlos Augusto Poggio. A concern fueled by the choice of a general, Walter Braga Netto, for the post of candidate for the vice-presidency alongside Bolsonaro. Some see it as a sign that the latter is ready to mobilize the barracks to challenge the results.
The uncertainty is such that even the United States is worried. A year ago, Joe Biden sent CIA boss William Burns to Brasília to lecture the Brazilian president. At the Summit of the Americas in June, Biden reiterated his message orally. According to US State Department spokeswoman Kristina Rosales, “the Brazilian president has assured that he will respect the election result. We will take this statement seriously.” But to speculate on the future in this way, we would almost forget that Lula has not yet won. “Bolsonaro can still win at the polls, notes political scientist Lara Mesquita. He retains the support of employers. And the package of social measures [près de 8 milliards d’euros] which has just been approved could reduce the dissatisfaction of poor voters, hit hard by the economic crisis.” Captain Bolsonaro did not say his last word.