(Finance) – The global oil demand growth continues to decelerateweighed down by renewed Chinese lockdowns and from the continuous slowdown in the OECD area. This is partly offset by the large-scale replacement of gas with oil, estimated at an average of 700 kb / d during the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, double the level of a year ago. TheIEA, the International Energy Agency, in its monthly Oil Market Report. All this leads to a downward revision of the estimated world demand for oil, which is now seen to increase by 2 mb / d in 2022 and by 2.1 mb / d in 2023.
The IEA lowered its forecasts for the Chinese question of oil of 400,000 barrels a day this year, 15 million barrels a day, 420,000 barrels a day less than last year. For 2023, it lowered its demand forecast for China by 300,000 barrels per day, but still expects demand to rise to 16 million barrels per day with theeasing of restrictions on the pandemic.
The persistent weakness of demand in China has slowed the pace of the summer acceleration considerably.refining activities. After reaching a post-Covid peak of 81.4 mb / d in August, the report predicts that refinery production will decline between September and October due to seasonal maintenance. With smaller runs, stocks of refined products are unlikely to see substantial increases for the rest of the year.
It is emphasized that the total Russian oil exports they increased by 220,000 barrels per day in August to 7.6,000 barrels per day, down 390,000 barrels per day from pre-conflict levels. THE export revenues estimates decreased by 1.2 billion to 17.7 billion dollars. Russian imports of crude oil to the EU / UK have decreased by 880 kb / d since the beginning of the year to 1.7 mb / d, while imports from the US have increased by 400 kb / g to 1.6 mb / d. g. Iraq, Norway, Guyana and Saudi Arabia also increased shipments to the EU.
THE oil futures Brent crude fell below $ 90 / bbl in early September, the lowest level since January and over $ 34 / bbl below the June peak. “This is the biggest drop in 90 days from March-April 2020 and was only surpassed before 2020 by the market failures in 2014-15 and 2008-09 – the report reads – However, the diesel and jet fuel markets remain exceptionally tight, as can be seen from current prices “.